20170323-毕马威-Global_Automotive_Executive_Survey_2017_56页_6mb_6mb

Summary of Global Automotive Executive Survey 2017

Core Content

The Global Automotive Executive Survey 2017 highlights the current and future challenges and opportunities facing the automotive industry. It emphasizes the tension between traditional and emerging technologies, the impact of regulatory pressures, and the evolving consumer expectations. The survey includes insights from over 1,000 senior executives across 42 countries, as well as perspectives from more than 2,400 consumers.

Key Trends and Views

1. Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) are the #1 Key Trend

• 76% of executives believe internal combustion engines (ICEs) will remain important for a very long time.
• 53% of executives believe diesel is dead.
• BEVs are ranked as the top key trend, surpassing connectivity and digitalization in importance, driven by regulatory pressure and consumer interest.
• 62% of executives believe BEVs will fail due to infrastructure challenges.
• 78% of executives believe fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) will be the real breakthrough for electric mobility.

2. Autonomous Driving and Digital Ecosystems

• Autonomous driving is seen as a disruptive trend that will redefine the utility of vehicles and enable service- and data-driven business models.
• 85% of executives agree that measuring market shares based on unit sales is outdated; customer value and profitability are becoming central.
• 83% of executives anticipate a major business model disruption within the next 5 years.
• 59% of executives believe that half of today's car owners will not want to own a car in 2025.

3. Co-competition and Strategic Alliances

• The auto industry is in a "co-competition" phase, where strategic alliances with players from converging industries are essential.
• 68% of executives believe purchasing criteria will become irrelevant.
• 89% of executives believe independent features will become key purchasing criteria.
• 55% of executives agree that OEMs will compete with Silicon Valley companies.
• 82% of executives believe a Silicon Valley company will launch a car in the next 4 years.

4. Infrastructure and Application are Critical for BEV Success

• Coordinated infrastructure development and clear application differentiation (e.g., urban vs. long-distance) are necessary for BEV success.
• The existing infrastructure and traditional vehicle applications are cited as reasons for the continued belief in FCEVs over BEVs.

5. OEMs are Torn Between Being a Contract Manufacturer or a Grid Master

• 35% of executives believe OEMs will become the Grid Master, while 15% think they will remain contract manufacturers.
• The transition from offline to online is critical, with a focus on platform strategies, big data, and mobility-as-a-service.

6. The Auto Industry is Lost in Translation

• The industry is struggling to manage evolutionary, revolutionary, and disruptive trends simultaneously.
• The clash of cultures between the auto and digital worlds is insurmountable, and a new "co-integration" dimension is emerging.
• 71% of executives believe that swarm intelligence and standards are essential for the success of autonomous driving technologies.

Investment and Technology Dilemma

• High investments are planned for all powertrain technologies.
• 53% of executives plan to highly invest in ICEs.
• 52% of executives plan to highly invest in plug-in hybrids.
• 37% of American consumers would buy an ICE as their next car.
• 36% of consumers prefer full hybrid electric vehicles.
• 21% of consumers still prefer internal combustion engines.
• 72% of Chinese OEMs highly invest in BEVs.
• BEVs are expected to grow rapidly once infrastructure is developed in high-density and high-income cities.

Challenges and Opportunities

• Regulatory pressure is a key driver for the shift toward electrification.
• Diesel is considered socially unacceptable, though it remains a viable option in certain applications.
• Digital ecosystems and customer-centric service models are becoming more important.
• Zero-error tolerance and releasability are key factors in the future business model, but neither alone is sufficient.
• 49% of executives believe traditional OEMs are most trustworthy, while 25% think Silicon Valley newcomers are more trustworthy.

Conclusion

The automotive industry is at a critical juncture, where traditional technologies and emerging trends coexist and compete. The success of BEVs hinges on infrastructure development and clear application areas, while FCEVs are seen as the real breakthrough due to their compatibility with existing systems. Autonomous driving and digital integration are set to redefine the industry, and strategic cooperation and customer value will be central to future competitiveness. The transition from ownership to mobility services is inevitable, and the industry must prepare for a new business model that integrates both traditional and digital elements.

Additional Insights

• NextGen Analytics provides a more flexible and interactive approach to analyzing data.
• Regional differences are significant, especially in BEV adoption and infrastructure development.
• Consumer behavior is shifting, with a growing preference for hybrid and electric vehicles, but infrastructure gaps remain a major barrier.
• Digital ecosystem and platform strategies are becoming increasingly important in shaping the future of the automotive industry.