2021年11月版美国金融稳定报告（英）-85页_3mb

Financial Stability Report Summary - November 2021

Core Content

The Federal Reserve Board's Financial Stability Report for November 2021 provides an assessment of the resilience of the U.S. financial system. It outlines the key vulnerabilities and risks to financial stability, emphasizing the importance of monitoring these factors to ensure the safety and soundness of financial institutions and the broader economy.

Main Points

Purpose

• The report aims to enhance public understanding and transparency regarding the Federal Reserve's view of financial stability.
• Promoting financial stability is a key component of the Fed's dual mandate of full employment and price stability.
• Monitoring and assessing financial stability supports the Fed's regulatory and supervisory activities.

Framework

• The report distinguishes between shocks (unexpected events) and vulnerabilities (systemic weaknesses).

• Four broad categories of vulnerabilities are analyzed:

  1. Elevated valuation pressures: High asset prices relative to economic fundamentals or historical norms, often driven by increased investor risk appetite.
  2. Excessive borrowing by businesses and households: High debt levels make entities vulnerable to financial distress during economic downturns.
  3. Excessive leverage in the financial sector: High leverage increases the risk of financial institutions being unable to absorb losses, leading to reduced lending or even insolvency.
  4. Funding risks: Liquidity and maturity transformation in financial institutions can lead to investor runs, especially in times of stress.

• These vulnerabilities can interact, amplifying the impact of shocks on the financial system.

Federal Reserve Actions

• The Fed uses its assessment of financial vulnerabilities to guide its supervisory and regulatory efforts.
• Actions include:
  • Strengthening capital requirements for large bank holding companies (BHCs).
  • Implementing stress-testing regimes.
  • Enhancing liquidity regulation.
  • Improving the resolvability of systemically important institutions.
• The Fed also informs the design of stress-test scenarios and the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB).

Key Information

Asset Valuations

• Risky assets continued to rise in price, with most valuations at high levels relative to history.
• Equity prices increased notably since May 2021, with the price-to-earnings ratio near historical highs.
• Corporate bond yields increased in line with Treasury yields, with spreads remaining narrow.
• Treasury yields remained low by historical standards, suggesting continued accommodative monetary policy.
• Farmland prices remained high relative to rents and incomes.
• Commercial real estate (CRE) prices continued to rise, but certain sectors (retail, hotels, offices) saw little change.
• House prices increased rapidly, outpacing rent increases, though little evidence of weakened underwriting standards was observed.

Borrowing by Businesses and Households

• Business and household borrowing as a percentage of GDP declined further from previous levels.
• Business debt indicators (debt-to-GDP, gross leverage, interest coverage ratios) largely returned to pre-pandemic levels.
• Household balance sheets benefited from stimulus, relief programs, and high savings rates.
• However, the expiration of government support and pandemic uncertainty still pose risks.

Financial Leverage

• Bank profits remained strong, and capital ratios were well above regulatory requirements.
• Broker-dealers had low leverage, while life insurance companies and hedge funds maintained high leverage levels.
• Collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) and asset-backed securities (ABS) issuance remained robust.

Funding Risk

• Domestic banks relied only modestly on short-term wholesale funding and maintained significant holdings of high-quality liquid assets (HQLA).
• Money market funds (MMFs) and bond and bank loan mutual funds showed structural vulnerabilities.
• The stablecoin sector also presents funding risk concerns.

Near-Term Risks

• Uncertainty over the pandemic and economic recovery could affect asset markets and financial institutions.
• Stresses in China's real estate sector and tightening global financial conditions in emerging market economies (EMEs) pose risks to the U.S. financial system.
• If realized, these risks could interact with existing financial vulnerabilities, potentially leading to financial instability.

Additional Boxes

• Retail Investors, Social Media, and Equity Trading: Highlights the role of social media in driving retail equity trading and the resulting volatility.
• The Role of Foreign Investors in the March 2020 Turmoil in the U.S. Treasury Market: Examines the impact of foreign investors on the Treasury market during the March 2020 selloff.
• Liquidity Vulnerabilities from Noncash Collateral at Central Counterparties: Discusses the risks associated with noncash collateral in central counterparties (CCPs).
• LIBOR Transition Update: Reviews progress in transitioning away from the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR).
• The Financial Stability Oversight Council's Climate Report and the Federal Reserve's Actions: Analyzes the Fed's approach to climate-related financial risks.
• Cyber Risk and Financial Stability: Describes how the Fed incorporates cyber risk into its financial stability monitoring framework.
• Salient Shocks to Financial Stability Cited in Market Outreach: Summarizes the most frequently mentioned risks to financial stability from market contacts.

Conclusion

• The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring financial vulnerabilities and adapting to evolving risks.
• While the financial system has shown resilience, certain areas remain at risk, particularly in the context of continued pandemic uncertainty and global financial conditions.
• The Fed continues to refine its financial stability framework through ongoing research and collaboration with other regulatory bodies.