美联储金融稳定报告（2023年10月）financial-stability-report-20231020-英-70页_2mb

报告摘要

Financial Stability Report Summary: October 2023

Overview of the Federal Reserve's Role

The Federal Reserve promotes financial stability to support full employment, stable prices, a safe financial system, and efficient payments. It monitors vulnerabilities in four key areas: asset valuations, business and household borrowing, financial-sector leverage, and funding risks, to assess potential systemic risks.

Key Findings

Asset Valuations: Equity markets and commercial real estate prices remain elevated, driven by high valuations relative to fundamentals. Residential property markets showed slight price increases, but valuations are stretched. Treasury yields rose significantly, increasing funding costs and liquidity pressures in fixed-rate assets.
Business and Household Borrowing: Debt levels are moderate overall, with vulnerabilities declining slightly since the May 2023 report. However, high interest rates strain some borrowers, particularly in commercial real estate. Credit quality in loans remains solid, but risks are emerging for vulnerable firms.
Financial-Sector Leverage: The banking system remains sound, with capital ratios near average levels. However, hedge funds and non-bank institutions show elevated leverage, and some institutions face liquidity challenges. Securitization activity has slowed, reducing excess leverage but not entirely eliminating risks.
Funding Risks: Most banks maintain high liquidity, but funding pressures persist for some institutions due to uninsured deposits and asset value declines. Cash-management vehicles like money market funds and stablecoins remain susceptible to runs, contributing to overall funding vulnerabilities.

Near-Term Risks

Persistent inflation could lead to tighter monetary policy, impacting economic growth and asset prices.
Commercial real estate losses could stress banks and insurers, potentially triggering wider financial instability.
Geopolitical tensions, especially involving China and global supply chains, could exacerbate inflation and market volatility.
Slower Chinese growth and U.S. fiscal debt sustainability issues pose additional risks, while climate-related financial risks are under increased scrutiny.

Monitoring and Improvement

The Federal Reserve enhances data collection and modeling to better assess climate and other emerging risks, ensuring resilience in the financial system. Surveys of market contacts consistently rank inflation, real estate, and banking-sector risks as top concerns.

Figure Notes

# Data sources, definitions, and trends are provided for charts showing asset prices, debt ratios, and liquidity metrics, with detailed explanations for changes observed.

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