JPMorgan-Japan_Equity_Strategy_Oct-Dec_earnings_outlook_Expect_Trump...-112913637_14页_1mb

报告摘要

October-December Earnings: Market shifts focus to FY2025 outlook rather than revising current forecasts upward significantly. Most Japanese TOPIX companies are expected to report flat growth or slight improvement in profits despite persistent headwinds from uncertain policies.
FX Impact: The yen remained weaker than anticipated (average ¥152.5/USD), benefiting exporters against previously expected levels. However, comparisons to still-strong ¥147 vs USD highlighted limited upside potential, given ongoing global uncertainty from Trump 2.0 policies.
Sector Analysis: Business conditions differ greatly by sector, with domestic demand (retail, real estate, food) showing some improvement, while overseas dependent industries (e.g., chemicals, autos) face slowing growth alongside concerns about US trade policy and Chinese/ASEAN slowing demand.
Analyst Views: Senior analysts point to hydrogen/electric vehicle (ZEV) regulations for future earnings focus, with specific recommendations on companies like Semiconductor firms and Banking stocks that may see positive yen impact. Chemical and Healthcare companies are noted for potential earnings upside.

Expect minimal upward revisions to overall TOPIX profit forecasts, but some positives in select sectors such as chemicals, real estate, IT, and services where upside may not be factored in yet.

October-December mark transition period from fiscal 2024 to 2025, shifted by the BoJ Tankan data showing corporate sentiment improving for domestic-focused companies.

Weaker Yen (¥152.5/USD) helps exporters but lacks magnitude; global manufacturing PMI stagnant amid policy uncertainty.

Domestic demand sectors show relatively better business conditions, though export-dependent companies face pressure from China slowdown and US policy risks.

Commentary highlights ongoing concerns over US tariffs/trade policies, demographic shifts, productivity cost management, and sustainability initiatives affecting company margins.

Key themes including price hikes from public companies, shareholder returns via buybacks, and medium-term management plans guiding future operational efficiencies.

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