2014-12-03-奥纬咨询-Political_Risk_in_Emerging_Markets_5页_241kb

The report analyzed by Oliver Wyman, based on Barrie Wilkinson's insights, focuses on the impending political risks in emerging markets as economies slow down from rapid growth. It argues that the primary threat stems from political instability rather than direct economic downturns. Key factors include waning popular support for leaders, rising nationalist sentiment, and economic disparities that fuel social unrest. Economic slowdown risks triggering currency devaluation, inflation, and debt crises due to capital flight fears. Youth unemployment and over-reliance on specific sectors, like mining, exacerbate instability, with examples from China, Brazil, Russia, and South Africa highlighting real-world impacts. The report draws parallels to the 2015 Western financial crisis, warning of populist policies that could lead to international conflicts and prolonged instability in new democracies with fragile legal systems. Positively, some emerging economies may use the period for structural reforms to achieve sustainable growth and transition to developed status, like South Korea. However, the journey is fraught with risks, emphasizing the need for careful risk management.