20140812-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_23页_1016kb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary - 12 August 2014
Core Content
This document provides a comprehensive overview of market conditions and company performance across several Asian regions, focusing on plantation, automobile, and property sectors in China, as well as updates on Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore. It also includes key indices, top picks, and market assumptions.
Key Sectors and Insights
Plantation
- Malaysia:
- CPO production increased by 6% month-over-month (mom) to 1.67m tonnes in July 2014, primarily due to higher FFB yields.
- Palm oil exports declined by 2% mom to 1.45m tonnes, mainly due to weak demand from most importing countries, except India.
- Inventory increased marginally to 1.68m tonnes, with an expected rise to 1.76m-1.80m tonnes by August.
- CPO prices are under pressure from the anticipated bumper US soybean crop and weaker biodiesel demand growth in Indonesia.
- Recommendation: Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
Automobile - China
- 1H14 Results Preview:
- Brilliance and Dongfeng are expected to post strong results, while Geely and Great Wall Motor are likely to disappoint.
- JVs (Joint Ventures) outperformed domestic automakers due to better product pipelines and penetration into the mass market.
- Sales of entry-level premium cars and SUVs are growing faster than sedans, driven by car loans and consumer upgrades.
- Top Picks: Brilliance (1114 HK/BUY/Target: HK$17.50) and Dongfeng Motor (489 HK/BUY/Target: HK$16.00).
- Sell Recommendations: Geely (175 HK/SELL/Target: HK$2.00), Great Wall Motor (2333 HK/SELL/Target: HK$21.50), and BYD (1211 HK/SELL/Target: HK$12.50).
- Risks: Policy changes, macroeconomic factors, and geopolitical tensions could impact sales and profitability.
Property - China
- Developers reported lower mom sales in July, but most recovered in June.
- Due to tightened liquidity in the first half of 2014, developers face a more challenging environment for the rest of the year.
- Intensive new launches during the peak season may impact sales targets.
- Recommendation: Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
Key Indices
| Index | Prev Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 16570.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -2.2 | -0.0 |
| S&P 500 | 1936.9 | 0.3 | -0.1 | -1.6 | 4.8 |
| FTSE 100 | 6632.8 | 1.0 | -0.7 | -0.9 | -1.7 |
| AS30 | 5449.4 | 0.4 | -1.5 | -0.5 | 1.8 |
| CSI 300 | 2365.3 | 1.5 | -0.4 | 10.1 | 1.5 |
| FSSTI | 3306.5 | 0.5 | -0.4 | 0.4 | 4.4 |
| HSCEI | 11037.9 | 1.9 | -0.5 | 6.3 | 2.1 |
| HSI | 24646.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 6.1 | 5.7 |
| JCI | 5113.2 | 1.2 | -0.1 | 1.6 | 19.6 |
| KLCI | 1849.3 | 0.5 | -1.4 | -1.8 | -0.9 |
| KOSPI | 2039.4 | 0.4 | -2.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| Nikkei 225 | 15130.5 | 2.4 | -2.2 | -0.2 | -7.1 |
| BDI | 792 | 1.9 | 5.2 | -2.7 | -65.2 |
Top Picks
| Company | Ticker | Recommendation | Price (Icy) | Target Price (Icy) | Pot. +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNBM | 3323 HK | BUY | 7.65 | 9.82 | 28.4 |
| ICBC | 1398 HK | BUY | 5.23 | 6.15 | 17.6 |
| Bank Mandiri | BMRI J | BUY | 10,475.00 | 10,800.00 | 3.1 |
| Gamuda | GAM MK | BUY | 4.80 | 5.60 | 16.7 |
| DBS | DBS SP | BUY | 17.96 | 22.68 | 26.3 |
| Pacific Radiance | PACRA SP | BUY | 1.41 | 1.55 | 10.3 |
| SREIT | SREIT MK | BUY | RM1.42 | RM1.51 | - |
| First Resources | FR SP | BUY | 2.23 | 2.80 | 28.4 |
| Astra Agro | AALI IJ | BUY | 26,500 | 32,100 | 23.2 |
| BW Plantation | BWPT IJ | BUY | 1,140 | 1,310 | 15.6 |
| Sampoerna Agro | SGRO IJ | BUY | 2,220 | 2,750 | 23.8 |
Key Assumptions
| Country | GDP (% yoy) | 2013 | 2014F | 2015F |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 3.0 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Euro Zone | 1.4 | -0.4 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Japan | 2.1 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Singapore | 4.2 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| Malaysia | 5.6 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 5.2 |
| Thailand | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 5.1 |
| Indonesia | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| Hong Kong | 3.7 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 3.7 |
| China | 7.3 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 7.3 |
| Commodity | 2013 | 2014F | 2015F |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent (US$/bbl) | 110 | 110 | 110 |
| Aluminium (US$/mt) | 1,886 | 1,713 | 1,650 |
| Copper (US$/mt) | 7,349 | 6,866 | 6,850 |
| Gold (US$/ounce) | 1,411 | 1,321 | 1,400 |
| Iron Ore (US$/mt) | 135 | 103 | 95 |
| CPO (US$/mt) | 736 | 858 | 858 |
| BDI | 1,219 | 1,500 | 1,800 |
Corporate Events
- Greater China 2H14 Market Strategy Analyst Presentation: Taipei, 11-12 Aug
- Bumilama Agri Corporate Luncheon: Singapore, 13 Aug
- Jiangnan Group Corporate Roadshow: Hong Kong, 15 Aug
- Dah Chong Hong Luncheon: Hong Kong, 19 Aug
- Singamas Container Holdings Corporate Roadshow: Hong Kong, 22 Aug
- Top Glove Corporate Roadshow: Montreal, 2 Sep
- Asian Gems Conference: Singapore, 8-9 Oct
Risks
- Higher-than-expected soybean oil supply.
- Decline in crude oil prices.
- Policy risk: Anti-trust probe by NDRC on foreign carmakers, affecting stock prices.
- Macro risk: Credit tightening could hurt auto sales.
- Geopolitical risk: Deterioration of Sino-Japan relations may impact Japanese car sales in China.
Market Weight
- Regional: MARKET WEIGHT
- Malaysia: UNDERWEIGHT
- Singapore: UNDERWEIGHT
- Indonesia: OVERWEIGHT
Summary of MPOB Data
| Metric | Jul 13 | Jun 14 | Jul 14 |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPO Production | 1.67 | 1.57 | 1.67 |
| Palm Oil Stocks | 1.67 | 1.66 | 1.68 |
| Palm Oil Exports | 1.45 | 1.48 | 1.45 |
| CPO Price (RM/ton) | 2,325 | 2,435 | 2,400 |
SARAWAK's Recovery
Sarawak's palm oil production showed a strong recovery, increasing by 17.8% mom to 286,000 tonnes in July 2014, compared to a low base in 2013.
India's Inventory Replenishment
India's palm oil imports increased significantly, with a 30.4% yoy growth in the first seven months of 2014, indicating a shift in demand.
Sector Catalysts
- Release of monthly sales figures and 1H14 results.
- New policies, particularly car licence quotas, may affect market sentiment.
- Biodiesel demand growth in Indonesia is a key factor for CPO prices.
Analysts
- Ken Lee, Regional Research Team, UOB Kay Hian
- Contact: +852 2236 6760, ken.lee@uobkayhian.com.hk
Peer Comparison
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap (US$m) | Recommendation | Price @ 11 Aug 14 | Target Price | PE 2013 | PE 2014F | PE 2015F | Div Yield 2014F | P/B 2014F | ROE 2014F | Net Gearing 2014F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brilliance | 1114 HK | 9,375 | BUY | 14.46 | 17.50 | 16.9 | 12.5 | 9.6 | 0.0 | 3.4 | 29.5 | 41.8 |
| Dongfeng Motor | 489 HK | 15,117 | BUY | 13.60 | 16.00 | 8.8 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 16.9 | (6.5) |
| Geely | 175 HK | 3,475 | SELL | 3.06 | 2.00 | 7.7 | 11.2 | 10.5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 14.3 | (23.9) |
| Great Wall Motor | 2333 HK | 12,521 | SELL | 31.90 | 21.50 | 9.4 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 28.7 | (7.9) |
| Guangzhou Auto | 2238 HK | 7,256 | HOLD | 8.74 | 9.30 | 16.8 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 11.8 | (12.7) |
| Baoxin | 1293 HK | 1,881 | BUY | 5.70 | 8.00 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 25.8 | 41.8 |
| China Zhengtong | 1728 HK | 1,169 | BUY | 4.10 | 6.50 | 8.6 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 13.0 | 35.7 |
| Dah Chong Hong | 1828 HK | 1,123 | BUY | 4.75 | 5.90 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 0.9 | 11.9 | 37.4 |
| Zhongsheng Sector | 881 HK | 2,364 | BUY | 9.60 | 12.00 | 14.4 | 12.5 | 9.6 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 14.0 | 123.7 |
Sales Growth of Carmakers
- Brilliance: Strong growth due to entry-level premium cars and SUVs.
- Dongfeng Motor: Expected to benefit from new SUV models.
- Geely and Great Wall Motor: Facing sales declines and margin pressures.
- BYD: Overvalued with high PE and PE expectations.
Capacity Utilisation of Carmakers
- JVs are experiencing higher capacity utilisation and margin improvement.
- Domestic automakers are facing capacity utilisation challenges due to sales declines.
Inventory-to-Sales at Dealer Level
- Inventory-to-sales ratio at dealer level is a key indicator of market conditions.
Conclusion
The report highlights the mixed performance across the plantation and automobile sectors, with Malaysia and Singapore underweight, and Indonesia overweight. It emphasizes the importance of biodiesel demand, product mix, and policy changes in influencing market trends. The top picks reflect a preference for companies with strong fundamentals and growth prospects, while risks are noted, including policy changes, macroeconomic factors, and geopolitical tensions.
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