2010年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Review_of_the_Adequacy_of_the_Fund’s_Precautionary_Balances_49页_870kb

Summary of the Review of the Adequacy of the Fund's Precautionary Balances

Executive Summary

This document reviews the adequacy of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s precautionary balances and proposes a more transparent and rules-based framework for adjusting the target over time. The current target of SDR 10 billion, established in 2002, has remained below the level needed to adequately cover the increased credit risks due to the Fund's expanded lending during the global financial crisis. The proposed new framework suggests maintaining the precautionary balance target within a range of 20-30 percent of credit outstanding, with an initial floor of SDR 10 billion. Based on the framework, the staff proposes raising the target to SDR 15 billion, which is the midpoint of the proposed range, reflecting the sharp increase in credit and commitments since the last review.

Core Content

Financial Risks and Mitigation Measures

The IMF faces several financial risks, including:

• Credit risk: The risk that borrowers may fail to meet their financial obligations. This is the dominant risk, as the Fund's role is to provide financing during balance of payments crises.
• Liquidity risk: The risk that the Fund's resources may be insufficient to meet its obligations. This is mitigated through quota reviews, bilateral borrowing, and the NAB and GAB.
• Income risk: The risk of shortfalls in annual income relative to expenditures. This has been mitigated by the new income model and increased lending income.
• Interest rate risk: Limited due to the use of SDR interest rates for charges and remuneration.
• Exchange rate risk: Managed by holding assets in SDRs and constituent currencies, and by matching currency weights in the SDR basket.
• Operational risk: Reduced through internal controls, audit arrangements, and investment guidelines.

Precautionary Balances

Precautionary balances are a key component of the Fund's risk management framework, comprising retained earnings and the Special Contingent Account (SCA-1). They serve as a buffer to absorb financial losses and protect the value of reserve assets held by members. These balances are also an important source of interest-free income for the Fund.

Key Findings and Data

Credit Outstanding and Commitments

• Credit outstanding has nearly tripled from SDR 17.2 billion in 2008 to SDR 48.6 billion in July 2010.
• Total commitments under GRA arrangements reached SDR 144 billion in July 2010, almost four times the level in 2008.
• Credit capacity has almost doubled to SDR 310 billion, reflecting expanded bilateral agreements and the FTP.

Precautionary Balance Ratios

• Precautionary balances as a percentage of credit outstanding have declined from over 40% in 2008 to 15% in July 2010.
• As a percentage of total commitments, they have fallen from 19% to 5.1%.
• As a percentage of credit capacity, they have dropped from 4.2% to 2.4%.

Current Precautionary Balances

• As of end-FY 2010, precautionary balances stood at SDR 7.3 billion, composed of SDR 6.1 billion in retained earnings and SDR 1.2 billion in SCA-1.
• Free reserves have also declined, from SDR 7.0 billion to SDR 6.1 billion.

Proposed Framework

Target Range and Floor

• The new framework proposes a target range of 20-30 percent of credit outstanding, reflecting the Fund's higher volatility compared to other IFIs.
• A minimum floor of SDR 10 billion is suggested to provide a necessary buffer given the time required to rebuild precautionary balances after sharp increases in credit.
• The framework uses a three-year moving average of credit outstanding to account for both recent and expected future developments.

Considerations for Target Adjustment

• The Board will retain flexibility to adjust the target based on a comprehensive risk assessment.
• The framework incorporates forward-looking indicators and scenario analysis to improve transparency and responsiveness.
• Commitments under precautionary arrangements are not explicitly included in the framework at this stage but will still be considered.

Staff Recommendations

• The staff proposes raising the precautionary balance target to SDR 15 billion, which is the midpoint of the proposed range.
• This increase is justified by the significant rise in credit and commitments during the crisis.
• Current projections suggest that the SDR 15 billion target could be reached by FY 2016 under existing policies.
• The pace of reserve accumulation is considered adequate, and no policy changes are recommended at this time.

Conclusion

• Precautionary balances remain below the 2002 target despite a return to positive net income.
• The new framework aims to improve transparency, flexibility, and alignment with other IFIs.
• The proposed increase in the target reflects the need to better cover the increased credit risks and support the Fund's global mandate.