2016年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Review_of_the_Adequacy_of_the_Fund39s_Precautionary_Balances_73页_1mb

IMF Policy Paper: Review of the Adequacy of the Fund's Precautionary Balances

Core Content

This IMF policy paper reviews the adequacy of the Fund's precautionary balances using a transparent and rules-based framework established in 2010. The review is conducted on a two-year cycle and is part of a broader assessment of the Fund's financial risks and its ability to maintain a sustainable income position. The paper also serves as background for upcoming reviews of access, surcharges, and the Fund's income in 2016.

Main Points

1. Precautionary Balances and Financial Risk Management

• Precautionary balances are a critical component of the Fund's balance sheet and serve as a buffer against financial risks, including credit, income, and liquidity risks.
• The Fund's multi-layered risk management framework includes:
  • Lending policies (conditionality, access limits, charges, and maturities)
  • Safeguards assessments and arrears strategies
  • Burden-sharing mechanism
  • Investment account and investment mandate
  • Precautionary balances

2. Precautionary Balances Framework

• The framework provides an indicative range for the target of precautionary balances based on a reserve coverage ratio of 20-30% of a forward-looking measure of credit outstanding.
• The target is not fixed and allows for judgment and Board discretion based on a comprehensive risk assessment.
• The minimum floor for precautionary balances is set at SDR 10 billion to protect against unexpected credit risk increases, particularly after periods of low credit.
• The target for precautionary balances has been raised over time:
  • SDR 10 billion in 2002
  • SDR 15 billion in 2010
  • SDR 20 billion in 2012 and reaffirmed in 2014

3. Current Status of Precautionary Balances

• As of end-FY 2015, precautionary balances stood at SDR 14.2 billion and reached SDR 14.5 billion by end-October 2015.
• The main sources of precautionary balances are:
  • Net operational income
  • Surcharges on purchases
  • IAS 19 adjustments
• The Special Contingent Account (SCA-1), which is part of the precautionary balances, has remained at SDR 1.2 billion since 2008. A portion of it was distributed to members after Liberia cleared its arrears.

4. Credit and Income Risks

• Credit risks have decreased due to early repurchases and delayed disbursements under certain arrangements, but the Fund's lending portfolio remains highly concentrated and subject to substantial risks.
• Recent temporary arrears have highlighted the need for continued vigilance.
• Income risks are currently low in the short term, but medium-term risks have increased due to a more uncertain global outlook.
• The Fund's income model has been updated to broaden non-lending income sources, which should help mitigate income risks over time.

5. Proposed Revisions

• The staff proposes retaining the medium-term target of SDR 20 billion, despite a slower-than-expected accumulation.
• The minimum floor for precautionary balances is suggested to be raised to SDR 15 billion, to better align with the need for a sustainable income position and to provide a larger buffer against unexpected credit increases.
• The allocation of net income between special and general reserves is proposed to be re-evaluated, with an initial suggestion of allocating one-half to two-thirds of total income to the special reserve.

6. Market and Liquidity Risks

• The Fund faces moderate market risks due to its investment strategy and the nature of its investment portfolio.
• Liquidity risks are managed through:
  • Forward Commitment Capacity (FCC) monitoring
  • Financial Transactions Plans
  • Quota reviews
  • Borrowing agreements (NAB and GAB)
• Precautionary balances play a limited role in managing liquidity risks due to their relatively small size compared to FCC.

Key Information

• Precautionary balances are composed of retained earnings in the general and special reserves and the Special Contingent Account (SCA-1).
• The reserve coverage ratio of 20-30% is used to determine the indicative target for precautionary balances, drawing on approaches from other IFIs.
• The burden-sharing mechanism is a key tool for managing credit risks, but it has limited capacity, increasing the potential reliance on precautionary balances in the event of new arrears.
• The Fund's income model is evolving to reduce income risks, especially through non-lending income sources.
• The staff report was completed on January 22, 2016, and the Executive Board discussed it on February 19, 2016.
• The review is part of the broader policy discussions on access and surcharges and the Fund's income in 2016.
• The minimum floor is a key safeguard against unexpected credit risk increases and ensures the Fund can meet its obligations.

Conclusion

The Fund's precautionary balances are a crucial part of its financial risk management strategy. While the current balance is below the medium-term target, the staff does not recommend further steps to reach it at this time due to the high concentration of credit and the uncertain global outlook. Instead, they propose raising the minimum floor and re-evaluating the income allocation to better support the Fund's long-term financial stability. The framework remains flexible and allows for judgment and Board discretion in setting the target based on a broad assessment of financial risks.