2009年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Review_of_the_Adequacy_of_and_Options_for_Supplementing_Fund_Resources_31页_772kb

报告摘要

The global financial crisis and shifting economic outlook have raised concerns about the adequacy of the IMF's resources.
The Executive Board requested an assessment of the Fund's resource needs and options for supplementing them.
G20 leaders also called for a review of IMF resources by March 31, 2009, and expressed willingness to increase them if needed.
The review discusses potential scale and modalities for increasing the Fund's resources to address the crisis.

The Fund's size has declined significantly compared to global economic indicators such as GDP, trade, and capital flows since the last general quota increase in 1998.
Even with the 11.5% increase from quota and voice reforms, the Fund's quotas remain below pre-1998 levels.
Quotas would need to increase by about 55% to return to 1998 levels in terms of global output, 130% for trade, and 115% for capital flows.

The current crisis is the most severe in 75 years, with widespread effects on both advanced and emerging economies.
Emerging economies have faced significant disruptions due to falling commodity prices, reduced external demand, credit constraints, and capital outflows.
The crisis has led to a contraction in advanced economies and has caused severe balance of payments pressures in emerging markets.
The Fund's role in providing liquidity and support is critical, especially as financial conditions remain far from normal.

The Fund has responded flexibly to the crisis, providing exceptional financing to several members.
The establishment of the Short-Term Liquidity Facility (SLF) has enhanced the Fund's ability to support members with short-term capital-account pressures.
The Fund has a unique mandate to provide temporary resources to members to correct balance of payments issues without harming national or international prosperity.
The Fund's global membership and capacity to catalyze financing further reinforce its importance in the global financial system.

The Fund's available resources declined by over a fifth in the last quarter of 2008.
Outstanding credit increased from SDR 7.6 billion to SDR 17.5 billion, and commitments rose by SDR 29.7 billion.
The forward commitment capacity (FCC) dropped from SDR 127.6 billion to SDR 97.6 billion.
Scenario analysis suggests that potential financing needs could reach SDR 65 to 160 billion, with some scenarios indicating needs up to SDR 200 billion.
These demands would exceed the FCC and NAB/GAB resources, highlighting the need for additional financing.

General Quota Increase: A traditional method for increasing Fund resources, though time-consuming.
Borrowing: Often used to bridge the gap before a general quota increase, especially during crises.
SDR Allocation: A potential method to supplement resources quickly, though its impact is limited by the number of SDRs available.
Parallel Financing Arrangements: Could help in meeting the financing needs, but require coordination with other lenders.

Bilateral Loan Agreements: Could be used to supplement the Fund's resources.
Placement of Fund Paper: Involves issuing Fund instruments to raise capital.
Enlargement and Expansion of the NAB: May provide additional liquidity to the Fund.
Potential Implications for the Fund's Finances: Borrowing must be carefully managed to avoid long-term financial strain.

The Fund's resources are insufficient to meet the potential demand arising from the crisis.
A doubling of the Fund's pre-crisis lending capacity is recommended, especially given the uncertainty and severity of the current situation.
The review emphasizes the need for a prompt and flexible response to ensure the Fund can continue to fulfill its mandate.
Further discussion is needed on the modalities of borrowing and the implications for the Fund's financial stability.

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