2021-11-08-莱坊-KNIGHT_FRANK-FICCI-NAREDCO_REAL_ESTATE_SENTIMENT_INDEX_Q2_Indian_Real_Estate_Residential_Office_10页_4mb

报告摘要

Real Estate Sentiment Index - Q2 2020 Summary

Core Content

The Knight Frank - FICCI - NAREDCO Real Estate Sentiment Index for Q2 2020 (April - June 2020) provides an assessment of the current and future sentiment in the Indian real estate market. It is based on a quarterly survey of key industry stakeholders, including developers, private equity funds, banks, and NBFCs. The survey evaluates various aspects such as the economy, project launches, sales, leasing, pricing, and funding.

Main Findings

A.1 Current Sentiment Score

The Current Sentiment Index reached its lowest level at 22 in Q2 2020.
The strict lockdowns and economic shutdown caused a sharp decline in market sentiment.
The score dropped further from 31 in Q1 2020, reflecting the deepening impact of the pandemic.
Industry stakeholders' sentiments turned pessimistic due to the crisis-induced economic downturn and job losses.

A.2 Future Sentiment Score

The Future Sentiment Index improved to 41 in Q2 2020 from 36 in Q1 2020.
Despite ongoing uncertainties, stakeholders have marginal optimism about the future of the real estate sector.
The improvement is attributed to gradual economic recovery, better macroeconomic indicators, and the acceptance of new business practices.

B.1 Zonal Future Sentiment Score

All regions in India showed subdued sentiment in Q2 2020.
The North zone saw the highest improvement in sentiment scores compared to the previous quarter.
This indicates a positive outlook for the real estate market in the coming six months.

B.2 Stakeholder Future Sentiment Score

Developer sentiments remain pessimistic in Q2 2020.
46% of respondents believe new office supply will worsen, while 55% think it will improve or remain the same.
27% of respondents expect leasing activity to improve, and 15% think it will stay the same.
54% believe rental pressures will persist, while 46% expect rentals to remain stable or increase.

B.3 Residential Sector Outlook

The residential market remains cautious and somber in Q2 2020.
50% of respondents expect new launches to worsen, down from 65% in Q1 2020.
31% of respondents believe residential sales will improve, up from 19% in Q1 2020.
49% expect prices to weaken, while 36% believe prices will remain stable.

B.4 Office Market Outlook

The office market remains cautious with no significant improvement in sentiment.
46% of respondents expect new office supply to worsen, while 55% think it will improve or remain the same.
27% of respondents expect leasing activity to improve, and 15% think it will remain the same.
54% of respondents believe rental pressures will continue, while 46% expect rentals to remain stable or increase.

B.5 Economic Outlook and Funding Scenario

The Indian economy is projected to contract by 4.5% in FY 2021, the worst since the Global Financial Crisis.
67% of respondents believe the economic impact of the crisis will either worsen or remain unchanged in the next six months.
47% of respondents expect credit availability to worsen for the real estate sector.

Key Recommendations

Government intervention is crucial to boost demand and improve sentiments in the real estate sector.
Tax benefits, reduced stamp duties, and GST for a specified period could help generate demand.
One-time debt restructuring and additional stress funds are expected to facilitate recovery.
Enhanced credit flow is needed to support working capital requirements of businesses.
The real estate sector is expected to rekindle economic activity once residential purchases resume, potentially reviving 300 industries and creating over 5 crore jobs.

Conclusion

The Current Sentiment Index reached its lowest level ever, but the Future Sentiment Index showed some improvement, indicating a potential recovery in the coming months. The residential market is expected to tread cautiously, while the office market remains cautious. The overall economic outlook is pessimistic, and funding constraints persist. The report highlights the importance of government support and fiscal stimulus in restoring confidence in the real estate sector.

Partners' Insights

Dr. Niranjan Hiranandani (NAREDCO): Emphasizes the need for tax relief and debt restructuring to generate demand and revive economic activity.
Sanjay Dutt (FICCI Real Estate Committee): Notes that residential sales are commendable despite challenges, and the office market is sustainable with high rent collection and low vacancies. REITs are expected to see increased investment by the end of the year.

Methodology

The index is calculated using a weighted average of responses to questions about the economy, project launches, sales, leasing, prices, and funding.
Respondents choose from five options, each with a specific weightage (100, 75, 50, 25, 0 points).
A score of 50 represents a neutral view, above 50 indicates positive sentiment, and below 50 indicates negative sentiment.

Summary

The Q2 2020 Real Estate Sentiment Index reflects the deepest downturn in the real estate sector due to the impact of the pandemic, but hope for recovery is present. While the current sentiment is at an all-time low, the future sentiment is showing signs of improvement, supported by economic indicators and government stimulus. The residential market is cautious, the office market is sustainable, and funding remains constrained. The report underscores the need for continued government support to boost demand and facilitate recovery.