2011年-ECB欧洲央行_Recent_developments_in_the_car_industry_in_major_euro_area_countries_3页_228kb

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE CAR INDUSTRY IN MAJOR EURO AREA COUNTRIES

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of recent developments in the car industry in Germany, Italy, and France, focusing on production levels, export performance, and the impact of car purchases on domestic consumption. It highlights the differences in recovery rates and export dynamics among these countries post-2009 economic downturn.

Production Trends

• Recovery Post-2009: The production of motor vehicles, trailers, and semi-trailers has recovered since early 2009, with Germany showing a significantly stronger rebound than France and Italy.
• Record Levels in Germany: In the third quarter of 2011, German car production reached record highs.
• France and Italy Lag: French and Italian car production remained around 15% and 30% below their previous peaks in 2011, respectively.
• Industry Importance: The car industry constitutes a larger share of total manufacturing production in Germany (13% in 2005) compared to France (8%) and Italy (5%).

Export Performance

• Germany's Strong Exports: Germany's car exports reached new highs in 2011, surpassing pre-crisis levels.
• France and Italy's Decline: French and Italian car exports were about 45% and 40% below their peak levels in 2011.
• Extra-EU Exports: Germany's extra-EU car exports exceeded the 2007 peak by over 30%, while France and Italy had much lower contributions.
• Key Markets: In 2010, Germany had the highest share of extra-EU car exports in total exports (nearly 50%), with the U.S. and China as the main trade partners (each around 10%).
• China's Role: Germany has been the primary beneficiary of increased exports to China, with a 200% increase in export volume from 2008 to 2010. In 2011, Germany's share in China's total car imports reached 60%, compared to 4% for France and 3% for Italy.
• Foreign Production: By 2010, German car manufacturers had significantly increased production abroad, with China being a major location, producing over 1.5 million cars.

Domestic Consumption

• Impact on Overall Consumption: Car purchases account for a relatively small share of overall consumer spending (about 5% in Germany and slightly less in France and Italy), meaning they do not significantly shape overall domestic consumption.
• Consumption Patterns: The timing of car purchases has been influenced by the introduction and withdrawal of car scrappage schemes.
• 2009-2010 Trends:
  • Germany: Passenger car registrations increased by over 20% in 2009, then declined by a similar percentage in 2010 after the scrappage scheme was withdrawn.
  • France: Registrations rose by 13% in 2009, followed by a decline of nearly 4% in 2010.
  • Italy: Similar trends were observed, with a decline in registrations after the scrappage scheme's withdrawal.
• 2011 Performance: In 2011 (data up to October), passenger car sales in Germany positively contributed to overall consumption growth, while in France and Italy, purchases declined, resulting in a negative contribution to consumption growth.

Summary

• Germany has shown a more robust recovery in both production and exports compared to France and Italy.
• Export Dynamics: Germany's success is attributed to strong extra-EU export markets, particularly the U.S. and China.
• Domestic Consumption: While car purchases do not significantly influence overall consumption, they have played a role in shaping consumption patterns, especially during periods of policy changes like scrappage schemes.
• Global Production: German car manufacturers have increasingly shifted production to foreign markets, with China being a key location for manufacturing.