2011年-ECB欧洲央行_Recent_productivity_developments_in_the_euro_area_and_the_United_States_4页_236kb

Box 6: Recent Productivity Developments in the Euro Area and the United States

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of productivity developments in the euro area and the United States during and after the financial and economic crisis. It highlights the differences in how each region adjusted its labor markets, which in turn influenced productivity growth patterns.

Main Points

• Productivity Growth Gap Widened During the Crisis:
  During the financial and economic crisis, the productivity growth gap between the euro area and the United States widened significantly. The United States experienced greater employment losses compared to the euro area, particularly in relation to the size of the GDP contraction.

• Euro Area Productivity Adjustments:

  • The euro area saw a sharp decline in aggregate productivity at the start of the recession, with productivity growth per person employed falling by a record 4.0% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2009.
  • Hourly productivity declined less steeply, as many euro area countries implemented flexible working-time arrangements and crisis measures (e.g., short-time work in Germany), allowing firms to adjust working hours rather than employment levels.
  • Since the fourth quarter of 2009, productivity growth in the euro area has shown ongoing improvements, averaging 2.2% per person employed and 1.4% per hour worked by the first quarter of 2010.

• United States Productivity Adjustments:

  • The US adjustment during the recession relied more heavily on employment shedding rather than changes in working hours. This led to stronger productivity growth in both per person and per hour terms.
  • As output began to recover, continued job losses in the US resulted in a particularly strong rebound in productivity growth.
  • By the fourth quarter of 2010, productivity growth rates in the US and euro area appeared similar, though this masked important differences in the cyclical dynamics of productivity.

• Labour Market Adjustment Paths:

  • Chart B illustrates that, although the euro area experienced a higher initial GDP growth rebound at the start of the recovery, the US continued job shedding for a longer period.
  • In the euro area, total hours worked adjusted almost simultaneously with GDP growth, initially through increased hours per person and later with modest employment growth.
  • In the US, total hours worked continued to decline even at the start of the recovery, due to ongoing job losses outweighing increases in hours per person.
  • As the recovery progressed, employment and total hours worked expanded faster in the US than in the euro area, though both economies have seen some leveling off in recent quarters.

Key Information

• Productivity Growth Trends:

  • The euro area's productivity growth has been more modest but consistent, averaging 2.2% per person employed and 1.4% per hour worked by Q1 2010.
  • The US initially experienced a stronger productivity rebound due to employment shedding, but growth rates have since moderated.

• Cyclical Dynamics:

  • Despite similar productivity growth rates in recent quarters, the underlying labor market dynamics differ.
  • The US has seen faster employment and hours worked expansion compared to the euro area, though both have experienced some stabilization.

• Implications for Long-Term Trends:

  • The document notes that both economies are still in the early stages of recovery, and it is too early to fully assess the implications of recent productivity dynamics on long-term trends.

Conclusion

The productivity growth gap between the euro area and the United States widened during the crisis due to divergent labor market adjustments. While the US relied more on employment shedding, the euro area focused on adjusting working hours. As the recovery progressed, productivity growth rates have converged, but the underlying structural differences suggest that long-term trends remain uncertain.