世界银行-2017-2022年不丹的贫困动态_来自综合小组的证据（英）-2025.1_28页_1mb

Poverty Dynamics in Bhutan, 2017–2022

Authors:

• Nicola Amendola
• Federico Belotti
• Alvin Etang Ndip
• Giulia Mancini
• Giovanni Vecchi
  Institution: World Bank Poverty and Equity Global Department

Key Findings:

1. Overall Poverty Reduction:

   • Poverty headcount decreased significantly from 28% (2017) to 11.6% (2022).
   • The decline is primarily driven by redistributive effects rather than economic growth.

2. Chronic Poverty:

   • Chronic poverty (staying poor in both survey periods) is low at 6% (around 45,100 households).
   • This rate is significantly lower than India (15.5%).

3. Poverty Turnover:

   • Upward mobility (escaping poverty) is 20 times higher than downward mobility (falling into poverty).
   • Poverty turnover overall is low, with only 15.7% of households experiencing transitions between the two periods.

4. Determinants of Mobility:

   • Rural Residence: Positively associated with upward mobility and negatively with downward mobility.
   • Education Level: Lower education levels correlate with higher overall mobility (both upward and downward).

5. Policy Implications:

   • Target interventions to sustain gains by rural households.
   • Strengthen education and skill development to enhance social mobility and economic stability.

Methodology:

The study employs synthetic panels using cross-sectional data from the Bhutan Living Standards Surveys (2017–2022).

• Poverty Lines: Adjusted for inflation using a basic-needs-based index to ensure consistency.
• Mobility Estimation: Estimates transition probabilities (joint and conditional) to analyze poverty dynamics.

Keywords: Poverty dynamics, economic mobility, synthetic panel methods.