2025-06-13-花旗集团-奥多比公司（ADBE）_奥多比公司（ADBE.O）2025年第二季度与管理层的小组回调会议_11页_307kb

Adobe Inc. (ADBE) Research Summary - June 2025

Citi Analysts' Neutral Takeaways

• Macro & Guidance: No significant macro shift expected; good pipeline visibility but heightened deal scrutiny. Expected flat Q/Q revenue and 12.4% total return with minor FX tailwinds in H2.
• Products:
  • AI Initiatives: Early days for generative AI; key products targeting AI scale (Firefly, GenStudio). Increased inferencing may lead to gross margin slight degradation but offset by efficiency gains.
  • Acrobat/Express GTM: Focus on strategic enterprise deals and upselling; strong conversions noted.

AI Development

• 4 AI products contribute to a $250m goal.
• Early agentic workflows; scale needed for ARR impact.
• AI adoption doubling Q/Q primarily in Firefly plans.

Pricing Impact

• Pricing less of an add-on in FY25 than in FY24.
• Standard list pricing effective this month; CC Pro migration monitoring ongoing.

ARR Trends

• Seasonality evolving; annual guides to continue.
• GTM initiatives causing quarterly variability.

Valuation

• Target Price: US$465, implying 12.4% return relative to $413.68 price.
• Equity Value Calculation: EV/FCF model uses 19.5x multiple on $10B FY26 FCF.
• WACC discount rate of 11.2%.

Risks

• Downside: Digital Media growth slowing, macroeconomic risks, margin pressures in DEX.
• Upside: Success in DEX integration, pricing improves ARR, penetration in underpenetrated markets.

Analyst Information

• Primary Analyst: Tyler Radke (ADBE Lead)
• Supporting Analysts: Ashley Kim, Kylie Towbin, Peter Griffith, Yitchuin Wong