2025-06-15-花旗集团-奥多比公司（ADBE）_奥多比公司（ADBE.O）_模型更新_平淡的第二季度但仍在寻找增长催化剂_15页_691kb

报告摘要

Adobe (ADBE.O) Citi Research Summary: Neutral Rating with Revised Model

Overall View: Citi maintains a Neutral rating on Adobe, citing the Q2 results were solid but still struggling to identify a durable AI growth story. While strong AI monetization efforts (e.g., Firefly Apps) gave early signs of progress, concerns remain over the fleeting nature of initiatives and diminishing market share for AI models (e.g., Firefly generations flat quarter-over-quarter).
Q2 Performance:
- Total revenue growth beat estimates by ~160/140 bps, driven by favorable FX and slightly stronger Demand Media (DM) performance.
- DM revenue grew 11% year-over-year (CC-linked 12%), exceeding the midpoint of guidance, with both Business Professionals & Consumers (BPC) and Creative & Marketing Professionals (CMP) showing similar growth.
- Digital Experience (DX) revenue reached ~$1.46B (+10% YoY CC), marginally exceeding guidance.
- Operating margins exceeded guidance by 50bps, attributed to slight top-line outperformance.
Future Outlook:
- Citi slightly raised FY25 total revenue guidance, revised DM growth to ~10% (unchanged for DX), attributing a third of the increase to FX tailwinds.
- AI business is tracking ahead of $250M ARR by FY25 end, but amid pricing uncertainty with various initiatives rolling on/off.
Valuation & Risk:
- Target price lowered to $450, reflecting slight estimate increases but added caution amid "additional prudence."
- Risks include slowing DM growth, macroeconomic headwinds, and Digital Experience’s need for incremental investment that could hinder margin expansion.