2021-12-16-牛津经济研究院-Eurozone_ECB_tapers_PEPP_purchases_but_retains_flexibility_3页_197kb

The ECB took steps to tighten its accommodative policy in late 2021, reducing net asset purchases under the PEPP to €0 in Q1 and ending the program in March, while temporarily raising APP purchases to €40bn in Q2 and €30bn in Q3 before returning to €20bn permanently. This shift was driven by upward revisions to growth and inflation forecasts, with ECB projecting headline and core CPI inflation at 3.2% for 2022 and 1.8% for 2024. The odds of a rate hike in 2023 have increased, but the ECB retains flexibility through open-ended APP purchases, the option to restart PEPP, and extended reinvestment through 2024. Overall, the decision balances hawkish short-term tightening with dovish elements in forward guidance and long-term flexibility, delaying any rate hike until 2023 at the earliest.