2013年-世界发展银行全球_EU11_Regular_Economic_Report_Issue_28_December_2013___Promoting_Shared_Prosperity_during_a_Weak_Recovery_in_Central_and_Eastern_Europe_65页_3mb

EU11 Regular Economic Report Summary

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the economic developments and policy challenges in the 11 European Union (EU) member states that joined after 2004, referred to as the EU11. It outlines the progress in economic recovery, the challenges in achieving shared prosperity, and the role of fiscal and monetary policies in this context.

Main Points

Economic Recovery in the EU11

• Growth Trends: The EU11 experienced a gradual improvement in growth rates in 2013, with an expected acceleration in 2014. The growth is anticipated to become more balanced as domestic demand starts to pick up.
• Growth Drivers: The initial recovery was supported by net export growth, especially from Romania, Slovakia, and Poland, due to improved conditions in the Euro Area.
• GDP Growth: Real GDP growth for the EU11 was 0.8% in 2012, 1.0% in 2013 (projected), and expected to reach 2.3% in 2014. Growth varied significantly across countries.
• Sectoral Contributions: The tradable sector, particularly manufacturing, was a major contributor to value-added growth.

Unemployment

• Unemployment Levels: Unemployment in the EU11 remains at record highs, with a total of around 4.9 million people unemployed.
• Vulnerable Groups: Youth and low-skilled workers are most affected, with high unemployment rates. In Croatia, youth unemployment is near 50%, one of the highest in the EU.
• Employment Trends: Employment levels have stabilized in the EU11, but have not yet returned to pre-crisis levels. Latvia and Lithuania show the largest gaps.

External Imbalances

• Trade Dynamics: Exports continued to grow, while imports declined, leading to a narrowing of external imbalances.
• Euro Area Influence: The Euro Area's recovery has positively influenced the EU11, especially in terms of trade and investment.

Inflation and Monetary Policy

• Inflation Trends: Inflation remained subdued, but there are risks from potential increases in global interest rates.
• Monetary Easing: Central banks have maintained monetary easing, but credit supply and demand remain limited.

Credit Conditions

• Credit Constraints: Credit growth has been subdued, limiting support for economic recovery. Non-performing loans and weak bank supervision are key challenges.
• Reforms Needed: Improving insolvency practices and construction permit issuance are critical to promoting private investment.

Fiscal Policy

• Fiscal Consolidation: Fiscal adjustment is expected to resume in 2014, though at a gradual pace to support growth.
• Country-Specific Needs: Larger fiscal adjustments are needed in Croatia and Slovenia to achieve sustainable deficit and debt levels.

Key Information

Growth Rates

• EU11: 0.8% in 2012, 1.0% in 2013 (projected), and 2.3% in 2014.
• Individual Countries:
  • Latvia: 5.5% in 2012, 3.9% in 2013, and 4.2% in 2014.
  • Lithuania: 3.7% in 2012, 3.0% in 2013, and 3.5% in 2014.
  • Poland: 1.9% in 2012, 1.5% in 2013, and 2.8% in 2014.
  • Romania: 0.7% in 2012, 2.2% in 2013, and 2.2% in 2014.
  • Czech Republic: -1.0% in 2012, -1.0% in 2013, and 1.8% in 2014.
  • Hungary: -1.7% in 2012, 0.9% in 2013, and 1.9% in 2014.
  • Estonia: 3.9% in 2012, 1.3% in 2013, and 3.0% in 2014.
  • Slovenia: -2.3% in 2012, -2.7% in 2013, and -1.0% in 2014.
  • Slovak Republic: 2.0% in 2012, 0.9% in 2013, and 2.1% in 2014.
  • Croatia: -2.0% in 2012, -0.8% in 2013, and 0.8% in 2014.

Fiscal Indicators

• Fiscal Deficit: In 2012, the fiscal deficit in the EU11 was around 2.9% of GDP, and in 2013 it was 2.2% of GDP.
• Public Debt: Public debt to GDP ratio in the EU11 was 92.6% in 2012 and 93.6% in 2013.
• Fiscal Adjustment: Expected to continue in 2014, though at a slower pace.

Shared Prosperity

• Definition: Shared prosperity is defined as robust income gains for the bottom 40% of the population.
• Income Growth: Before the crisis, the incomes of the bottom 40% in the EU11 grew rapidly. However, this growth has slowed, and the challenge now is to ensure continued progress.
• Main Contributors: Labor earnings and social insurance are the main contributors to income growth among the poorer groups.
• Vulnerability: The crisis has increased the vulnerability of the poor, especially in terms of employment and income stability.
• Policy Recommendations: To promote shared prosperity, policies should focus on job creation, improving competitiveness, and strengthening social protection mechanisms.

Structure and Data Sources

• Aggregates: Calculated using various methods including GDP, labor force, and consumption weights.
• Data Sources: Eurostat, World Bank staff calculations, and the Doing Business report.

Risks and Outlook

• Downside Risks: The report highlights the risks of rising global interest rates and policy uncertainty.
• Near-Term Outlook: A weak economic recovery is expected, with growth becoming more balanced over time.
• Fiscal and Credit Constraints: These are more binding in the current environment, limiting the potential for growth.

Spotlight on EU Cohesion Policy Funds

• Cohesion Policy: The EU14-2020 cohesion policy aims to boost investment in the EU11.
• Funding Allocation: The policy includes various instruments, with a focus on improving economic conditions and promoting growth.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the need for continued reforms, improved fiscal and monetary policies, and targeted social protection to achieve shared prosperity in the EU11, especially during a period of weak economic recovery.