2025-06-04-Jefferies-杰富瑞前瞻_跨行业研究信号_6页_180kb

Equity Research Summary (June 4, 2025)

Commentary by Sector

• Consumer: Consumer sentiment hits highest level since mid-February; 54% of survey respondents plan to increase/maintain spending. Labor market concerns grow due to expected higher layoffs and reduced work hours for hourly workers.
• Financials: Credit card volume trends support continued runway; however, productivity and unit labor costs show minor declines.
• Health Care: ASCO updates show promise for some drugs (Trodelvy), but academic/federal research spending is declining significantly.
• Industrials: Consumer Confidence index increased 12 points M/M.
• TMT: AI sentiment improved after annual Public Tech conference; Unity upgraded to Buy due to growth prospects.
• Transport & Logistics: China imports to the US expected to fall 30-60% due to tariff constraints.
• Utilities: Customer satisfaction declined for fourth consecutive year.

Economic Data Highlights

• Consumer Confidence: Increased 12 points M/M to 98.
• ISM Services PMI: At 52.3%, supporting continued economic expansion.
• Job Cuts YoY: Rising, especially in the technology sector.

Key Jefferies Macro Forecasts

• S&P 500 Target: 258.79 (+5.2%).
• Fed Funds: Projected at 4.38% end of 2025.
• Inflation (CPI): Target 2.5-2.7% year-over-year.

Equity Targets

Several companies were given “Buy” or “HOLD”:

• EXAS (Exact Sciences): BUY
• GILD (Gilead Sciences): BUY
• MA (Mastercard): BUY
• REPL (Replimune): BUY
• U (Unity Software): BUY
• V (Visa): BUY