2025-06-04-Jefferies-观看视频杰富瑞全球外汇主管谈有意为之的美元贬值_8页_860kb

Brad Bechtel, Jefferies Global Head of FX, posits that US-China trade discussions could trigger a managed 15% USD decline, driven primarily by China, with broader USD headwinds (like hedging and EUR rotation) potentially contributing 3-5% weakness.

China stands as the key driver: This decline aligns with trade talks, potentially part of a broader deal to offset tariffs, making imports cheaper and supporting global trade use of RMB.

Benefits for both nations: A weaker USD boosts US export competitiveness and reduces trade imbalances; a stronger RMB eases China's trade pressures and aids domestic consumers with cheaper imports.

Catalysts: Look for reduced Asian central bank intervention, PBOC allowing gradual USDCNY midpoint adjustments below 7, and weak correlation between CNY and USD.

Global impact: A weaker USD could inflate prices and keep the Fed's policy tighter; EM and G10 currencies may benefit, but risks include increased inflation in the US and worldwide.

Current context: Despite an 8-9% sell-off this year, USD remains at a historical high via trade-weighted index, positioning supports the thesis on reinforcement from US-China dynamics.