2025-06-16-花旗集团-早间电话会议_未来一周_6月16_-_20日_13页_247kb

报告摘要

CITI'S ANALYSIS OUTLOOK: JUNE 16-20, 2025

Key Events: G7 Summit till Tuesday, Eurogroup (Thursday), ECOFIN (Friday).
- Central Bank Meetings:
  - BoJ: June 16-17 monetary policy meeting preview; QT plan for FY3/27 likely reduced to ¥200bn/quarter; hike possibility in Oct 2025 or Jan 2026.
  - Fed: Expected to cut rates 25bp starting Sep 2025 (cumulative 125bp), contrasting market pricing due to cool inflation expectations.
  - BoE: Expected to hold rates (7-2 split) but cautious communication on "gradual and careful" approach.
  - Riksbank: Markets 80% priced for two cuts total; Citi sees catalyst for two cuts, supported by economic data and strong FX.
  - Norges Bank: Expected to hold rates; two cuts priced for 2026, risks for front-end SEK forwards vs EUR.
  - SNB: Markets pricing for 0% cut this week; limited capacity for further cuts beyond two cumulative, unless trade negotiations sour.
Strategy Views:
- Geopolitical risks and oil prices weighed on rates Friday; Citi's two bullish trades are holding:
  - Receive July ECB €STR (limited downside for data hiccups in tariffs/stimulus).
  - SFI Z5/Z6 flatteners (capture BoE cuts, despite inflation concerns).
- ECB stance neutral; long-end vulnerable to fiscal risk.
- EGB Market: New NATO defense target (3.5% GDP) implies €225bn issuance if unfunded; heavy supply concentrated in Germany, EU.
- German Curve: Value in front-end sub-sovereigns e.g., HESSEN Oct28 vs KFW Jun27.
Supply Data:
- EU: €10.0bn (till Tue); Germany: €4bn (Bunds, SB) till Fri; France: €11-14bn (OATs); Spain: €6bn.
- US: $36bn (20-yr Sector + 5-yr TIPS); BoE: £4.5bn (Gilt 4.375% '30).
- RV Metrics: High DV01 impact for EGB/Gilt issuance (53.0 $mn/bp total); specific bonds highlighted (e.g., DEU Green OBL '46).