2025-06-09-花旗集团-花旗最受关注-北美_6月2日-_6月8日_10页_154kb

报告摘要

US Economic Data:
- Job growth slowed in May (139k new jobs), while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. Continued claims indicate cooling; future data may prompt Fed rate cuts.
- ISM manufacturing PMI at 48.5 (down from 52.3) and services PMI below 50, signaling economic pullback.
- Fed likely to keep policy rates on hold but light cuts expected by September due to potential job growth stabilization and inflation cooling.
US Interest Rates:
- Tariff disputes under IEEEPA unchanged in impact; deficit and rollover risk remain high, complicating long-end yield predictions.
- Value seen in 20y USTs; front-end yields may benefit from economic resilience, but uncertainties persist.
- Short-term focus: Economic slowdown risks could alter yield curve dynamics; Fed's watchful waiting continues amid rising unemployment.
Corporate Sector:
- Constellation Energy (CEG): Downgraded to Neutral/High Risk due to revised AI PPA assumptions and scarcity value decline; target price $318.
- NVIDIA (NVDA): Reiterated Buy rating, lifted target to $180, citing AI upside through 2025.
- Broadcom (AVGO): Expected to beat earnings amid AI strength; reiterated Buy, raised target to $276.
Key Themes: Economic slowdown signs persist in housing, consumer spending, and job markets; AI maintains strong tailwinds for tech stocks like NVDA and AVGO.