2025-06-10-花旗集团-早间电话会议_对欧洲政府债券的日本需求思考_11页_288kb

报告摘要

Elevated JGB Yields Incentivize Repatriation
- Japanese investors are drawn to high yields in 30-yr JGBs (30bp pickup vs Eurozone rivals).
- This encourages repatriation from longer-dated EGBs, particularly Bunds, but selective interest in 5-10yr bonds and Bonos may emerge.
Underperformance Ranges
- OATs underperform Bonos due to low Japanese appetite for long-end French debt.
- Stagnant Japanese demand for French debt (Bonos) supports limited yield curve steepening.
Market Reactions
- April 2025 saw record €9.1bn Bund sales by Japanese investors.
- No material shift in EUR-denied investments observed despite high flows into EUR periphery bonds.
Hedged Spreads Convergence
- Japanese appetite increases for 5-10yr OATs despite ongoing euro-denied holdings.
- 10yr OAT-JGB spread narrowed significantly, signaling potential reversal of previous large-scale sales.

Bonos likely to outperform OATs given tighter JGB spreads relative to German debt.
BTP demand likely to remain stable without significant rating upgrades.
Japanese flows unlikely to cause significant spread shifts if approved political reforms follow.