国家经济和社会研究所-月度GDP跟踪-英国经济在2023年第一季度表现出韧性（英）-2023.4-12页_509kb

NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker Summary (April 2023)

1. Monthly GDP Performance

• February 2023:
  • Monthly GDP growth flat (+0.0%), better than the earlier forecast of -0.1% contraction.
  • Offset by contractions in services and production sectors.
  • Construction growth boosted by favorable weather.

2. Quarterly GDP Growth

• Three months to February (Q1 2023):
  • GDP grew by 0.1% (revised upward from -0.1% forecast).
  • Generally consistent with a flat economic growth trend.
  • GDP is 0.3% above pre-pandemic levels (Feb 2020).

3. Economic Outlook for 2023

• Short-term Forecasts:
  • Projected 0.3% growth for Q2 2023.
  • Overall view: cautiously optimistic, but with stable low growth expectations for the first half of the year.
• Supporting Indicators:
  • Improved PMI balances (CIPS UK PMIs).
  • Higher-frequency spending and hiring indicators stable.
  • Debit/credit card spending recovering gradually.

4. Sectoral Contributions to GDP Growth

• Services (80% of GDP):
  • Expected to grow 0.2% in Q1 and 0.3% in Q2.
  • Challenges include inflation costs and sector-wide trends.
• Construction (6% of GDP):
  • March PMI dipped to 50.7, but still growing in February.
  • HS2 projects providing support.
• Production (14% of GDP):
  • Manufacturing continues contraction.
  • Forecast contraction of 0.1% in Q2 or stabilization.

5. Methodology Notes

• NIESR provides rolling forecasts for GDP growth.
• Forecasts are based on high-frequency data aggregates and statistical models.
• Forecasts have potential errors, especially during volatile periods (e.g., Q2 2020).