【英国国家经济和社会研究所】月度GDP追踪器：短期收益，长期约束，因为财政影响不足-2024.11_13页_577kb

NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker Summary

Core Content

The NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker highlights the UK's economic performance in Q3 2024, noting a slowdown in growth compared to the first half of the year. The report emphasizes the importance of addressing long-term growth challenges, particularly low productivity, and the limited impact of recent budget measures on the short-term outlook.

Main Points

• Monthly GDP Growth:

  • September 2024 saw a 0.1% decline in month-on-month GDP growth, following 0.2% growth in August.
  • Q3 2024 GDP growth was 0.1%, a marked slowdown from the first half of the year.
  • The NIESR projects 0.3% growth for Q4 2024, primarily driven by the Production sector.

• Budget Impact:

  • The Chancellor's budget last month had limited effect on the immediate economic outlook.
  • Policymakers need to focus on long-term growth strategies to address the UK's low productivity and stimulate sustainable growth.

• Economic Outlook:

  • The UK economy remains on a positive growth trajectory, but momentum is slowing.
  • Geopolitical risks, such as the Ukraine-Russia war and Middle East tensions, pose potential threats to GDP.
  • The election of Trump in the US could lead to trade fragmentation, impacting export performance.

Economic Setting

• The UK's GDP growth has been slower than expected compared to the previous forecast.
• The services sector, which accounts for 80% of GDP, has seen a slight slowdown in momentum.
• The Construction sector (6% of GDP) has been a key driver of growth, though it has faced some decline.
• Production is expected to contribute significantly to Q4 growth, though it is volatile and difficult to predict.
• The UK's long-term growth trend remains low, at around 1% per annum, compared to historical standards.

Sectoral Detail

Services (80% of GDP)

• Services growth slowed in Q3, with the S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI falling to 52.0 in October from 52.4 in September.
• Business services and finance continue to be a key contributor, though there is pre-budget uncertainty affecting business confidence and investment.
• The NIESR forecasts 0.2% growth for the services sector in Q4 2024.

Construction (6% of GDP)

• The Construction PMI dropped to 54.3 in October, after reaching a 29-month high in September.
• Civil Engineering remains a strong driver of expansion.
• Housebuilding saw a marginal decline in output, though the rate of decline is small.
• The NIESR forecasts improving economic conditions in Q4, which may lead to a turning point for the construction sector.

Production (14% of GDP)

• The Production sector is expected to grow by 0.9% in Q4, but its output is volatile and hard to predict.
• Manufacturing (10% of GDP) is a major component, but the S&P Global/CIPS UK manufacturing PMI fell from 51.5 to 49.9 in October.
• Export performance has been weak, and domestic uncertainty has affected business investment.
• The NIESR forecasts a contraction in manufacturing in Q4 2024.

Mining and Quarrying (1% of GDP)

• The sector is expected to contract by 1.0% in Q4 2024.
• It is a small but erratic component of industrial production.

Recent Trends and Data

• Retail sales rose by 0.3% in September, following a 1% rise in August, the highest since July 2022.
• Supermarket sales volume saw its largest decline for food stores this year, attributed to poor weather and reduced spending on luxury food items.
• High-frequency indicators and business surveys show a gradual upward trend in some sectors, but pre-budget uncertainty has dampened business confidence.
• The S&P Global/CIPS UK Composite PMI fell from 52.6 to 51.7 in October, reflecting moderate decline in business activity.

Sectoral Growth Comparison

• The services sector has seen a slower growth in recent months compared to the first half of 2024.
• The production sector has shown some improvement in high-frequency data but remains volatile.
• The construction sector has seen fluctuations, with civil engineering continuing to drive expansion.

Health Warning

• The NIESR GDP Tracker provides rolling monthly forecasts and updates them as new data and surveys become available.
• The first estimate for a quarter is made in the first month of the quarter and is updated each month.
• The report warns that short-term forecasts can change significantly based on new evidence.
• Figure 9 illustrates how forecasts have evolved as more data has been released.

Summary Table

Conclusion

The UK economy is experiencing a slowdown in growth momentum, with GDP growth falling below expectations. While the services sector remains a key driver, pre-budget uncertainty and geopolitical risks are affecting business confidence and investment. The Production sector is expected to provide some growth in Q4, but manufacturing and mining are facing contraction. The report calls for long-term policies to address low productivity and stimulate sustainable growth.