2011年-世界发展银行全球_Afghanistan_Economic_Update_October_2011_19页_1mb

Afghanistan Economic Update Summary (October 2011)

Core Content

Afghanistan's economy experienced strong growth in FY2010/11, with real GDP growth reaching 8.4 percent. This growth was driven by increased agricultural production, expansion in construction and transportation, and security spending supported by large aid inflows. However, this growth was not sustainable, as it was partly fueled by exceptional factors such as a record harvest and large donor grants.

Main Points

Economic Growth

• Real GDP Growth: Increased to 8.4% in FY2010/11, down from 21.0% in FY2009/10.
• Growth Drivers: Strong performance in the services sector (accounting for about half of output), agriculture (contributed 2.0 percentage points to GDP growth), and industry (grew by 6.3% due to the expanding mining sector).
• Growth Volatility: High volatility due to the agriculture sector's dependence on seasonal weather and the impact of security conditions.

Inflation and Prices

• Inflation Trend: The country moved from sharp deflation to double-digit inflation in one year, mainly due to rising prices in food, electricity, and fuels.
• CPI Increase: Inflation reached 13.3% year-on-year in January 2010/11, driven by international price trends, trade disruptions, and security-related costs.
• Food Prices: Rose by 44% due to a poor harvest and drought, increasing the cost of flour by 44% and pushing more people into poverty.

Poverty

• Poverty Rate: 36% of the population is poor, with vulnerable groups like the Kuchis facing a higher rate of 54%.
• Poverty Impact: A 10% increase in wheat prices could push an additional 377,000 Afghans into poverty.
• Consumption Behavior: Households tend to trade off quality for quantity in response to price shocks, reducing consumption of nutrient-rich foods.

Public Finances

• Revenue Growth: Revenues increased by 34% annually over the last three years, reaching US$1.7 billion in FY2010/11, exceeding the IMF target.
• Tax and Customs: Tax and customs duties are the main revenue sources, with customs duties contributing 36% of total revenues.
• Expenditures: Operating expenditures grew faster than revenues, creating a fiscal sustainability challenge.
• Security Spending: Security costs accounted for 75% of operating expenditures, with donor contributions covering 68% of the security wage bill.
• Development Budget: Only 40% of the development budget was executed over the past three years, raising concerns about absorptive capacity and budget formulation.

Donor Contributions

• ARTF Funding: Donors have resumed funding the ARTF investment window, but the lack of a resolution to the Kabul Bank crisis has affected multi-donor assistance.
• IMF Agreement: A satisfactory resolution of the Kabul Bank crisis is critical for the IMF-supported ECF program, and progress is expected by October/November 2011.

External Sector

• Current Account Deficit: Narrowed from 51.3% to 39.8% of GDP in FY2010/11, largely due to improved trade balance and donor grants.
• Trade Issues: The APTTA agreement faces challenges, including disputes over bank guarantees and customs procedures, affecting trade with Pakistan.
• International Reserves: Gross international reserves reached US$5 billion, supporting the balance of payments and enabling the Da Afghanistan Bank to double its reserves since FY2005/06.

Exchange Rate

• Afghani Depreciation: The Afghani has depreciated against the US Dollar and Euro, likely due to inflationary pressures and trade disruptions.

Security Transition

• Handover Progress: The first phase of security handover to Afghan forces was completed in six locations, with the full transition planned for the next three years.
• International Concerns: Donor countries face domestic issues that may affect their continued support for Afghanistan's development and security.

Investment and Business Environment

• Doing Business Index: Afghanistan ranked lowest in the region and 167th globally in the World Bank's 2011 Doing Business Index.
• Investment Climate: Businesses face challenges such as red tape, lack of policy predictability, and corruption.
• Reform Efforts: The Ministry of Commerce and Industries launched initiatives to improve the business environment.

Financial Sector

• Kabul Bank Crisis: The crisis has impacted donor confidence and the implementation of the IMF-supported ECF program.
• Reforms: The government is working on financial sector reforms, including resolving the Kabul Bank issue and improving banking supervision.

Natural Resources

• Mining Projects: Hajigak and Aynak are major mining projects that could generate significant government revenue.
• Oil and Gold: Two oil extraction contracts were awarded, and an agreement for a gold mine was signed, with production planned for 2013.

Infrastructure

• Telecommunications: The sector is growing rapidly, with mobile subscriptions reaching 13 million by early 2010 and projected to reach 19 million by end-2011.
• Internet Access: Only 5% of the population uses the internet, with services limited to major cities.

Key Information

• Growth Drivers: Services, agriculture, and security spending.
• Fiscal Challenges: Rising security expenditures, pay & grading reforms, and donor-funded projects.
• Donor Dependency: The Afghan budget heavily relies on donor contributions, with external grants covering the majority of development spending.
• Poverty and Food Security: High poverty rates and food insecurity are exacerbated by price volatility and poor harvests.
• Economic Volatility: The economy is highly dependent on donor funding and international prices, leading to significant fluctuations.
• Security Transition: The shift of security control to Afghan forces is a major focus, with ongoing challenges in ensuring stability and effective governance.
• Reforms and Development: Public financial management reforms and infrastructure development are progressing, but execution rates remain low.

Figures and Data Highlights

• Figure A: Shows real GDP growth volatility.
• Figure B: Highlights the contribution of services and agriculture to GDP growth.
• Figure C: Illustrates the role of private consumption in growth.
• Figure D: Depicts the trade balance and current account deficit.
• Figure 5: Indicates the fiscal sustainability ratio and operating expenditures.
• Figure 9: Compares Afghanistan's Doing Business indicators with regional countries.

Conclusion

Afghanistan's economy is growing but remains volatile, driven by donor support, security spending, and the services sector. While the fiscal position is improving, the government faces significant challenges in maintaining fiscal sustainability and effectively executing the development budget. The resolution of the Kabul Bank crisis and the successful transition of security control to Afghan forces are critical for long-term economic stability and growth.