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BP Statistical Review of World Energy - 2019 68th Edition Summary

Core Content

The BP Statistical Review of World Energy (2019, 68th edition) provides a comprehensive overview of global energy consumption, production, trade, and carbon emissions for the year 2018. It highlights the tension between the societal demand for a low-carbon energy transition and the actual pace of progress, emphasizing that the world is still on an unsustainable path towards net-zero emissions.

Key Trends and Statistics

Global Energy Consumption

• Primary energy consumption grew by 2.9% in 2018, the fastest rate since 2010, nearly double the 10-year average of 1.5%.
• Natural gas accounted for over 40% of the increase in primary energy consumption, reflecting its strong growth.
• Renewables also contributed significantly to the growth, though slightly below their historical average, and were the fastest-growing energy source.
• China, the US, and India together accounted for over two-thirds of the global increase in energy demand.

Carbon Emissions

• Carbon emissions from energy use grew by 2.0%, the fastest increase in seven years, equivalent to the carbon emissions of adding one-third more passenger cars globally.
• The growth in carbon emissions was directly linked to the increased energy consumption, particularly in the US, China, and Russia.

Oil

• Global oil production increased by 2.2 million barrels per day (Mb/d), more than double the historical average.
• US oil production grew by 2.2 Mb/d, the largest annual increase by any country, driven by the shale revolution.
• Oil consumption rose by 1.5%, with China (0.7 Mb/d) and India (0.3 Mb/d) being the main contributors.
• Dated Brent oil prices averaged $71.31 per barrel, up from $54.19 in 2017.
• Refinery utilization reached its highest level since 2007.

Natural Gas

• Global natural gas consumption increased by 5.3%, one of the fastest growth rates since 1984.
• US gas consumption rose by 78 bcm, a record high for any country.
• Natural gas production grew by 190 bcm, with the US (86 bcm), Russia (34 bcm), and Iran (19 bcm) leading the increase.
• LNG trade grew by 39 bcm, more than double the 10-year average, driven by LNG supply expansion in Australia, US, and Russia.
• China accounted for around half of the increase in LNG imports.

Coal

• Coal consumption grew by 1.4%, the fastest rate in five years, with India (36 mtoe) and China (16 mtoe) as the main contributors.
• OECD coal demand fell to its lowest level since 1975.
• Global coal production increased by 162 mtoe, with China (82 mtoe) and Indonesia (51 mtoe) as the largest contributors.
• Coal's share in primary energy fell to 27.2%, its lowest level in fifteen years.

Renewable Energy

• Renewable energy consumption grew by 14.5%, slightly below the historical average, but still the fastest-growing energy source.
• Solar generation contributed 30 mtoe, and wind generation contributed 32 mtoe, with solar making up over 40% of renewables growth.
• China was the largest contributor to renewables growth, accounting for 32 mtoe, surpassing the entire OECD.

Electricity

• Electricity generation increased by 3.7%, with China, India, and the US as the main drivers.
• Renewables accounted for 33% of the net increase in electricity generation, followed by coal (31%) and natural gas (25%).
• Renewables' share in power generation rose from 8.4% to 9.3%, while coal still dominated at 38%.

Key Minerals

• Cobalt and Lithium production both increased by 13.9% and 17.6% respectively, far exceeding their 10-year average growth.
• Cobalt prices rose by 30%, and Lithium carbonate prices increased by 21%, both reaching new highs since 2008.

Main Points and Analysis

• The US shale revolution played a central role in both oil and gas production, significantly impacting global energy markets.
• Weather-related effects, particularly in the US, China, and Russia, were a key driver of increased energy consumption and carbon emissions in 2018.
• China was a major contributor to global energy demand and emissions growth, especially due to industrial activity and coal-to-gas switching.
• Renewable energy, while growing rapidly, was not sufficient to offset the rise in carbon emissions, highlighting the need for decarbonization of the power sector.
• The OPEC+ agreement helped stabilize oil markets, but geopolitical tensions and supply growth in non-OPEC countries (like Libya and Nigeria) introduced volatility.

Conclusion

The BP Statistical Review underscores the challenge of transitioning to a low-carbon energy system. While renewables are growing rapidly, the continued rise in carbon emissions and the unsustainable pace of energy growth suggest that the world is not on track to meet Paris climate goals. The report emphasizes that a multi-fuel and multi-technology approach will be necessary, including coal-to-gas switching and CCUS, to achieve a low-carbon future.

The role of the Statistical Review is to provide objective data and analysis to inform public debate and policy discussions. It is a valuable resource for understanding global energy trends and the complex interplay between economic growth, weather effects, and climate goals.

Additional Resources

• All tables and charts are available at bp.com/statisticalreview.
• The BP World Energy app allows users to explore energy data and customize charts.
• Historical data from 1965 and country/region factsheets are also accessible.