战略与国际研究中心-Venezuela-s-Presidential-Crisis-and-the-Transition-to-Democracy_3页_131kb

Venezuela’s Presidential Crisis and the Transition to Democracy Summary

Core Content

The document discusses the constitutional and political crisis in Venezuela following the 2018 presidential election and the subsequent May 20, 2019, election, which is widely regarded as illegitimate. It outlines the legal basis for the transition to democracy and the role of Juan Guaidó in this process.

Main Points

• Origin of the Crisis
  The crisis began on January 10, 2019, when the new presidential term was supposed to start. However, the election that was supposed to determine the new president was not valid due to several constitutional violations.

  • The National Electoral Council (CNE) proclaimed Nicolas Maduro as the president, but this election was organized by an illegitimate national constituent assembly.
  • The main political parties and leaders were banned, violating political rights.
  • The electoral process lacked transparency.
  • The regime used the humanitarian emergency as a tool for political coercion.
  • Over 50 countries did not recognize the May 20 election.
  • The Lima Group declared Maduro a usurper, as he was not legitimately elected.

• Juan Guaidó as Interim President

  • The National Assembly declared that Maduro cannot be recognized as the legitimate president.
  • Article 233 of the Constitution provides that if the elected president cannot assume office, the National Assembly president becomes interim president.
  • Despite this, Maduro continues to hold power, making the transition difficult.
  • The National Assembly approved a statement on January 15, 2019, declaring Guaidó as interim president under Article 233.
  • On January 23, Guaidó swore in as interim president during a public demonstration, which is considered a constitutional act.
  • The document clarifies that Guaidó is not a self-proclaimed president but is legally designated as interim president by the National Assembly and the Constitution.

• International Representation of Venezuela

  • The National Assembly asserts that it should represent Venezuela internationally due to Maduro’s lack of legitimacy.
  • Several countries, including the United States, have recognized Guaidó as interim president, supporting the legitimacy of the National Assembly.
  • Guaidó has the authority to protect Venezuela’s assets abroad, such as Citgo, and to act in international legal matters.
  • The OAS and its general secretary have also recognized the National Assembly and Guaidó as the legitimate authorities in Venezuela.

Key Information

• Legal Basis: The transition is based on Articles 233, 333, and 350 of the Venezuelan Constitution, which outline procedures for interim leadership and the restoration of democratic institutions.
• International Recognition: Over 50 countries and international organizations have recognized the legitimacy of the National Assembly and Juan Guaidó as interim president.
• Challenges: The regime has dismantled the rule of law, making it difficult to enforce decisions. The military and public officials are also under pressure to support the transition.
• Goals: The transitional government aims to restore democratic institutions, address the humanitarian crisis, and organize free and fair elections.

What to Expect Next

• The transition process will focus on implementing Article 233 to allow Guaidó to effectively assume the presidency.
• The National Assembly and the transitional government will work to recover the state’s capabilities, which have been weakened by corruption and organized crime.
• They will address the humanitarian emergency and the migration crisis.
• Institutional reforms will be necessary to ensure the organization of free and transparent elections.
• The protection of Venezuela’s assets abroad, including Citgo, will be a priority for Guaidó’s interim government.

Author and Institution

• The report is authored by José Ignacio Hernández G., a visiting fellow at the Center for International Development, Harvard University, and a professor of administrative law at Universidad Central de Venezuela and Universidad Católica Andrés Bello.
• The report is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a nonpartisan, non-proprietary research institution.
• The research is supported by general funding from CSIS, with no direct sponsorship.

Conclusion

The document emphasizes that the current situation in Venezuela is a constitutional crisis, with Maduro’s regime being considered a usurpation. It highlights the legal and international support for Juan Guaidó as the interim president and the steps needed to restore democracy and the rule of law in the country.