国际战略研究中心-分离度：中美脱钩的有针对性方法中期报告（英文）-2021.2-48页_2mb

Summary of Degrees of Separation: A Targeted Approach to U.S.-China Economic Engagement

Core Content

Degrees of Separation is an interim report by the CSIS Economics Program, authored by Stephanie Segal and Dylan Gerstel. The report examines the evolving U.S.-China economic relationship and evaluates the effectiveness of U.S. economic tools in shaping foreign policy outcomes. It proposes a targeted approach to decoupling, rather than wholesale disengagement, to address specific areas of tension without undermining broader economic ties.

Main Points

• U.S.-China Economic Interconnection: The U.S. and Chinese economies are more interconnected than ever, with China maintaining the largest trade surplus with the U.S. and significant U.S. investment in China. Despite tensions, economic linkages have grown and remain essential for global stability and prosperity.

• Decoupling Debate: The report acknowledges the growing call for decoupling, driven by concerns over national security and ideological differences. However, it argues that a complete separation is neither feasible nor in the U.S. interest, given the complexity of global supply chains and the interdependence of the two economies.

• Historical Context: The report traces the evolution of U.S. engagement with China from Nixon’s 1972 visit to the present, highlighting the shifting motivations from geostrategy and economic integration to managing competition and addressing human rights and technology concerns.

• Six Key Motivations for U.S. Engagement:

  1. Geostrategy: To counterbalance the Soviet Union, prevent aggression (e.g., in Taiwan), and support non-proliferation and global governance.
  2. Economics: To promote market-oriented reforms, balanced growth, and global economic stability.
  3. Human Rights and Civil Society: To support openness, human rights, and democratic choice in China.
  4. Global Rules and Norms: To encourage compliance with international trade rules and update global governance.
  5. Global Public Goods: To address climate change, public health, and development in low-income countries.
  6. Technology and Innovation: To foster R&D collaboration, protect intellectual property, and expand regulatory transparency.

Key Information

• U.S. Policy Shifts: The U.S. policy toward China has evolved from a strategy of engagement to one of competition. The Obama administration emphasized cooperation and strength, while the Trump administration framed China as a revisionist power seeking to challenge U.S. interests.

• China’s Economic Transformation: China’s rapid economic growth under Deng Xiaoping’s reforms, starting in 1978, significantly increased its global economic influence. Despite these reforms, China has not liberalized politically, and its authoritarian model persists.

• WTO Accession: China’s accession to the WTO in 2001 marked a turning point in its integration into the global economy. This move was seen as beneficial for U.S. economic interests and global trade norms, even though political liberalization was not a primary goal.

• Future Approach: The report advocates for a targeted decoupling strategy, focusing on specific economic activities that pose risks to U.S. interests. A follow-up report will present a framework for evaluating these activities, along with case studies to test the approach.

Structure of the Report

1. Executive Summary: Outlines the report's purpose and main arguments, emphasizing the need for a nuanced, targeted approach to U.S.-China relations.
2. Introduction: Discusses the current state of U.S.-China economic interdependence and the challenges posed by growing tensions.
3. Evolution of U.S. Economic Engagement with China: Reviews the historical development of U.S. policy toward China, from the Cold War era to the present.
4. Taking Stock of the Bilateral Economic Relationship: Analyzes trade, investment, and innovation linkages, showing increased interconnectivity.
5. Assessing the Effectiveness of Economic Tools: Evaluates how U.S. economic tools have been used to achieve foreign policy goals, considering the role of allies, partners, and the private sector.
6. Next Steps: Proposes a targeted decoupling framework and outlines the need for further analysis and case studies.
7. About the Authors: Provides information on the report’s authors and the CSIS Economics Program.

Conclusion

The report concludes that while the U.S. and China have deep economic ties, these relationships are not without challenges. A targeted approach to decoupling can help manage these tensions without severing the broader economic and strategic linkages. It emphasizes the importance of understanding historical motivations and outcomes to guide future U.S. policy objectives with China.