【ADB】可再生能源制造业：东南亚的机遇报告_48页_17mb

Renewable Energy Manufacturing: Opportunities for Southeast Asia
Summary

Southeast Asia presents significant opportunities for renewable energy manufacturing, with potential revenue reaching $90 billion–$100 billion by 2030 in low-carbon mobility and clean power sectors. The region currently contributes 9%–10% of global solar PV cell/module capacity, ~50% of global nickel output, and 6%–10% of electric two-wheeler (E2W) production. Natural advantages include 16 terawatts (TW) of solar potential, 25% of global nickel and cobalt reserves, and 25% of the global two-wheeler market.

Solar PV Manufacturing
Southeast Asia’s solar PV manufacturing is largely export-focused, with concentrated capacity in Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam. The region’s module production (70 GW) far exceeds local demand (~3 GW annually), though domestic demand may grow sustainably. Key challenges include high production costs (15%–20% above China’s), limited grid infrastructure, and inefficient logistics. To unlock growth, stakeholders must address: (1) greenfield Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) parity; (2) supportive regulations; (3) risk mitigation for developers; (4) grid infrastructure development; and (5) storage capacity for solar intermittency. Policy alignment, such as designating solar PV as a national priority, fostering strategic partnerships, and improving regulatory frameworks (e.g., through the World Bank’s RISE index) will be critical. Malaysia’s case highlights the role of non-financial support, including industry-academia collaboration and tax incentives, in attracting investment. The Philippines’ case emphasizes the need for workforce training and infrastructure upgrades to enhance competitiveness.

Battery Manufacturing
Southeast Asia’s battery industry could become a regional and global hub, targeting 140–180 GWh production by 2030. The region’s abundant nickel reserves (Indonesia alone holds 21% of global reserves) make it ideal for NMC battery ecosystems. However, current domestic demand (~2% of global market) is limited, requiring export-driven growth. Key success factors include vertical integration, scaling production (reducing costs by ~20%), improving labor productivity, and proximity to raw material suppliers. Indonesia’s ambition to reach 140 GWh by 2030, supported by government commitments and tax incentives, exemplifies potential. Challenges include balancing cost competitiveness with China’s low production costs (5%–10% higher in Indonesia) and improving logistics infrastructure. Policy interventions, such as tax exemptions and partnerships to build end-to-end supply chains, are imperative.

Electric Two-Wheeler (E2W) Manufacturing
E2W manufacturing in Southeast Asia faces hurdles like low domestic demand, limited component production, and reliance on fossil fuel OEMs. The region currently has 1.4–1.5 million annual assembly capacity, projected to reach 4.5 million by 2030. Key demand drivers include total cost of ownership parity with ICE vehicles, charging infrastructure (e.g., battery swapping), and supportive policies. Indonesia’s target of 2.3 million annual production capacity by 2030 could address 90% of domestic demand, requiring ~$610 million in investment. Challenges include E2W penetration rates (<1% in most countries) and the dominance of ICE incumbents (e.g., Honda, Yamaha). Strategic measures like tax incentives for E2W purchases, infrastructure upgrades, and collaboration with global players (e.g., through the ASEAN Power Grid) are essential.

Regional Collaboration
Southeast Asia’s historical cooperation can enhance competitiveness and meet net-zero goals. The ASEAN Power Grid’s expansion could improve renewable deployment via multilateral trade and grid flexibility. Harmonizing technical standards for E2Ws and charging stations would reduce OEM development costs. Public-private partnerships (e.g., government-to-business collaborations, multilateral funding) and regional supply chain integration (e.g., shared resource pools) are vital. The report advocates for an implementation roadmap to scale renewables manufacturing, emphasizing ecosystem-wide efforts.

Key Recommendations

1. Policy Support: Align national strategies with renewable goals, streamline regulations, and provide tax incentives for manufacturers.
2. Infrastructure Investment: Improve grid systems, logistics, and charging networks to reduce costs and enable scalability.
3. Workforce Development: Targeted education programs and partnerships with academia to bridge talent gaps.
4. Regional Integration: Foster ASEAN-wide collaboration to create a unified market, standardize technologies, and ensure supply-demand balance.

The report underscores that Southeast Asia’s renewable energy manufacturing potential hinges on addressing regional disparities, leveraging natural resources, and implementing tailored policies. With strategic investments, the region could achieve economic growth, job creation, and climate resilience by 2030.