JPMorgan-Macau_Gaming_Slower_start_to_2025_but_all_eyes_on_the_LNY_p...-113211837_12页_1mb

Summary of J.P. Morgan Equity Research: Macau Gaming (January 2025)

• Key Points:

  • Jan GGR declined 6% y/y and remained flat MoM at MOP18.3B, below the consensus estimate but in line with JP Morgan forecasts.
  • The slowdown was attributed to a pre-holiday traffic drop, particularly affecting large properties during the Mufan holiday period.
  • Segment analysis shows stronger recovery in the mass segment compared to VIP, though growth rates are still challenged.
  • Market focus shifts to the Lunar New Year (LNY) print on 10 Feb, with a predicted daily GGR peak of MOP800-850M during high season.
  • JP Morgan anticipates cumulative GGR growth of ~5% for FY2025, driven by better-than-consensus January performance.
  • Stock recommendation: Galaxy (Overweight/Top Pick) listed as top pick, supported by earnings momentum and valuation metrics (8.5x EBITDA excluding option value). Other picks: MGM > Wynn > Sands > SIM > Melco.

• Valuation Summary:

  • Galaxy offers the most attractive valuation among peers, with others facing higher multiples.
  • EV/EBITDA for FY2025 aligns with historical averages but trades at significant discounts compared to pre-pandemic norms.