Sipri-21世纪海上丝绸之路：对欧盟的安全影响和前进方向（英文）-2018.9-63页-5mb

21st Century Maritime Silk Road: Security Implications and Ways Forward for the European Union

Core Content

This report analyzes the security implications of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road (MSR), a sea-based component of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and evaluates the potential for the European Union (EU) to engage in security cooperation with China and other regional stakeholders in the South China Sea (SCS) and the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

The MSR is part of a broader Chinese vision to enhance global connectivity, promote economic development, and secure its maritime interests. It aims to strengthen China's blue economy, which is valued at over $1.2 trillion, and to improve food and energy security, secure sea lines of communication (SLOCs), and enhance China's international influence. The initiative also seeks to reduce the impact of disruptive forces on key supply chains and increase China's resilience to economic or diplomatic isolation.

The report highlights that the MSR has expanded its geographic scope, encompassing the SCS, IOR, South Pacific, Mediterranean Sea, and Arctic Ocean. Its strategic evolution emphasizes cooperation on maritime security and 'green' development, aiming to bridge a connectivity gap between land and sea. However, it also raises concerns about the potential for increased militarization, territorial disputes, and the impact on regional stability.

Main Views

• Geographic Expansion: The MSR is continuously expanding its geographic scope, with a focus on enhancing connectivity and securing SLOCs.
• Security Implications: The initiative increases security complexity in the SCS and IOR, which are more contested than the terrestrial regions of the Belt.
• EU Interests: The EU has significant maritime security interests in these regions, particularly in terms of freedom of navigation, economic stability, and regional cooperation.
• China's Aspirations: China is pursuing a 'maritime renaissance' to become a global maritime power, leveraging the MSR to achieve this goal.
• Regional Dynamics: The MSR interacts with regional and extra-regional powers, including the Quad (United States, India, Japan, Australia), and may lead to increased competition and militarization.
• EU Engagement: The EU is advised to engage more proactively with China and regional stakeholders to address security concerns and promote cooperation.

Key Information

• The MSR is a key component of the BRI, designed to enhance maritime connectivity and cooperation.
• The initiative has raised concerns among regional states, particularly regarding China's growing influence and potential security implications.
• The EU is encouraged to integrate development and security in its regional engagement, and to monitor maritime security developments in the SCS and IOR.
• The MSR may contribute to the reshaping of the global maritime order, with China playing a more prominent role.
• The EU should consider using platforms such as the Galle Dialogue and the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium for security cooperation.
• The report suggests that the EU could play a role in promoting a code of conduct for maritime security and in supporting sustainable development initiatives.

Recommendations to the EU

1. Integrate Development and Security: The EU should integrate development as a core tenet of its security strategy in its engagement with Southeast Asian and IOR states.
2. Country-specific Approach: The EU should adopt a country-specific approach to evaluate the security and investment climate of each nation along the MSR.
3. Address SCS Security Concerns: The EU should engage with China, ASEAN, and other stakeholders to address concerns about China's maritime presence and its implications for EU SLOCs and freedom of navigation.
4. Proactive Policy on Indo-Pacific: The EU should develop a proactive strategic policy on the Indo-Pacific and its implications for long-term regional stability.
5. Monitor IOR Dynamics: The EU should closely monitor changes in maritime security developments in the IOR, particularly the interactions between China and the Quad.
6. Promote Regional Coordination: The EU should consider playing a greater role as a regional maritime security coordinator, especially in light of growing tensions between China and the Quad.
7. Establish Code of Conduct: The EU could lead in establishing and maintaining a code of conduct for maritime security, similar to the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific.
8. Tailor Missions: The EU should tailor its local missions in Southeast Asia and South Asia to better engage with Road projects and local stakeholders.
9. Economic Engagement: The EU could meet its security interests indirectly through economic engagement, such as building coalitions to enhance economies of scale and access local tenders.

Conclusion

The 21st Century Maritime Silk Road presents both opportunities and challenges for the EU. While it can contribute to economic growth and regional cooperation, it also raises concerns about security, territorial disputes, and the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. The EU should seek to engage constructively with China and other regional stakeholders to address these challenges and promote a stable and secure maritime order.