斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所-The-21st-Century-Maritime-Silk-Road_-Security-implications-and-ways-forward-for-the-European-Union_63页_5mb

报告摘要

21st Century Maritime Silk Road: Security Implications and Ways Forward for the European Union

Core Content

The 21st Century Maritime Silk Road (MSR) is a key component of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), aimed at enhancing global maritime connectivity and promoting China's economic and strategic interests. This policy report examines the security implications of the MSR for the South China Sea (SCS) and the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), and explores opportunities for EU security cooperation in these areas.

The MSR is characterized by:

A constant expansion of its geographic scope into new maritime areas.
A strategic evolution toward cooperation on maritime security and green development.
A focus on securing sea lines of communication (SLOCs), enhancing food and energy security, and upholding territorial sovereignty.
A lack of comparable initiatives in scale and speed, allowing China to bridge a connectivity gap between land and sea.
A potential risk of increasing China's maritime strategic influence, which may raise concerns for the EU and other regional stakeholders.

Main Points and Findings

China's Aspirations and Strategic Rationale

The MSR is part of a broader Chinese maritime renaissance, aimed at enhancing China's global influence and economic security.
It is intended to support the development of China's blue economy, which contributed 9.4% of China's GDP in 2017, or over $1.2 trillion.
China seeks to diversify and secure its maritime infrastructure, including ports, industrial parks, and special economic zones (SEZs).
The initiative also serves to reduce the impact of disruptive forces on key supply chains and to increase resilience against economic or diplomatic isolation.

Security Implications

The South China Sea (SCS) and Indian Ocean Region (IOR) are more contested than the land-based Silk Road Economic Belt (Belt).
The MSR may exacerbate existing territorial disputes, particularly in the SCS, where Vietnam and the Philippines are concerned about Chinese investment.
In the IOR, the MSR is increasing competition and militarization, especially with the Quad (US, India, Japan, Australia).
The MSR could lead to a shift in regional security dynamics, potentially diminishing the role of the US and changing the balance of power in the IOR.
The EU is advised to monitor and engage with the security developments in these regions to ensure alignment with its interests and values.

Key Recommendations to the EU

Integrate development into security policy: The EU should consider development as a core tenet of its security strategy in the SCS and IOR.
Tailor engagement to individual countries: The EU should evaluate each country's security and investment climate rather than treating regions as a whole.
Address SCS security concerns: The EU should engage with China and ASEAN to discuss maritime security implications, especially regarding freedom of navigation.
Increase EU attention to IOR security: The EU should monitor the security developments led by China and the Quad and support peaceful transitions to new regional security arrangements.
Promote a code of conduct: The EU could lead in establishing a code of conduct for maritime security, similar to the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific.
Enhance local engagement: The EU should better align its local missions with Road projects to ensure coordinated and inclusive economic and security engagement.
Leverage economic cooperation: The EU could indirectly meet its security interests through economic initiatives, such as coalitions and special economic zones (SEZs).

Conclusion

While the MSR offers economic and strategic opportunities, it also poses significant security challenges for the EU and other regional actors. The security implications are shaped by Chinese strategies and regional stakeholder responses. The EU should strategically engage with China and other stakeholders to mitigate risks and promote cooperation on maritime security, green development, and sustainable growth. The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and regional forums such as the Galle Dialogue and the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium could serve as points of entry for EU involvement in the region.

Key Figures

Figure 2.1: Map of the South China Sea illustrating MSR security implications.
Figure 2.2: Map of the Indian Ocean Region illustrating MSR security implications and investments.

Summary

The 21st Century Maritime Silk Road is a strategic initiative that has expanded China's maritime influence and enhanced its economic and security interests. While it promotes connectivity, development, and cooperation, it also raises security concerns, particularly in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean Region. The EU has a key role to play in addressing these implications through proactive engagement, cooperation with China and regional stakeholders, and supporting sustainable development and maritime security. The report highlights the need for dialogue, innovation, and alignment with EU values to manage the risks and capitalize on the opportunities presented by the MSR.