GTA-世界贸易组织能否成为反全球化的堡垒？（英）-2023.10-16页_558kb

Summary of Simon J. Evenett's Article: "Can the World Trade Organization Act as a Bulwark Against Deglobalization?"

Introduction

• The article examines the effectiveness of existing multilateral trade rules in deterring large trading nations from deglobilizing the world economy through state actions.

Key Arguments

1. Ineffectiveness of WTO Rules:

   • Evidence from high-profile trade policy episodes, such as the US-China trade war, demonstrates that WTO members often violate core principles like Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariff treatment and exceed bound tariff rates.
   • Shared evidence highlights issues with temporary export controls during COVID-19 and national security justifications, which are covered by exceptions in trade rules but increase market fragmentation.
   • Corporate subsidies are widespread but underregulated, with G-20 members showing significant capacity to legally increase import tariffs or leverage exceptions without penalty.

2. Leeway Under WTO Framework:

   • G-20 members often have substantial room to raise tariffs beyond their bound rates, indicating that multilateral tariff bindings are not effective constraints.
   • The WTO's rules are incomplete, allowing exceptions and contestation, and enforcement mechanisms are weak, as seen in disputes with minimal deterrence.

3. Evidence Summary:

   • Trade wars (e.g., US-China) show non-transitory tariff increases.
   • COVID-19 saw persistent export restrictions and subsidies that offset trade liberalization.
   • Subsidies and targeted interventions have proliferated, distorting global trade to levels where 80% of world goods trade is covered by discriminatory policies, down to 0.2% being undistorted.

Assessment

• The current multilateral trade rule book is incomplete and poorly enforced, failing to deter deglobalization efforts or contain selective policy interventions.
• Deglobalization pressures are not contained by policy choices that shift toward less transparent interventions, and geopolitical rivalries highlight the limited utility of WTO rules.

Conclusion

• Multilateral trade rules should not be expected to limit deglobalization, as governments retain significant policy space, and there is a need to explore alternative mechanisms, such as regional agreements or business community engagement, outside the WTO framework.