2025-06-10-花旗集团-Credicorp（BAP）_Credicorp（BAP.N）_C_-甜蜜系列_构建（更多）动力_11页_272kb

Citi Research Summary: Credicorp (BAP.N)

Citi Research recommends a "Buy" for Credicorp (BAP.N). The target price is US$220, with an expected share price return of 3.1% and a dividend yield of 4.4%. Total expected return is 7.5% over 12 months, based on a dividend discount model and a sustainable ROE of 18.5%.

Upside risks for 2025 guidance: BAP's ROE of 18.4% (post-1Q25) meets or exceeds targets. Management may revise 2025 guidance upward in Q2 if factors improve, such as low-cost funding growth, non-financial income from digital initiatives, loan growth acceleration, and cross-selling opportunities.

Asset quality under control: Despite origination acceleration, cost-of-risk remains manageable short-term. The bank tracks risk-adjusted net interest margin (NIM) as a key value driver.

Peru elections and loan growth: Elections in April 2026 are viewed as constructive. Loans are expected to grow slightly above GDP in 2025 and potentially at double-digit rates in both sectors if elections yield favorable outcomes.

Digital initiatives: Key projects include Yape (payments), Tenpo (Chilean neobank), and Monokera (insurance technology). These aim for 10% of revenue from new models by 2026. Yape has driven payment growth with associated loans, and Tenpo shows good traction.

Valuation: Target price $220 based on 18.5% sustainable ROE, 7.0% perpetuity growth, and 13.5% cost of equity.

Key risks: On the upside, faster loan demand, better asset quality, looser usury laws, lower political noise, or faster digital revenue. On the downside, slower loan growth, economic deceleration requiring provisions, currency mismatches, global slowdown, political instability, or systemic risks.