世界银行-越早越好_尼日尔抗旱现金转移（英）-2025.6_66页_963kb

The Earlier the Better? Cash Transfers for Drought Response in Niger

• Objective: To evaluate the impact of varying cash transfer timing (early, small, or traditional) on household welfare during drought, incorporating seasonality in Niger.
• Methodology: A three-arm randomized controlled trial with 4,144 households across three communes. Treatments included: "Early short" (four large transfers four months before lean season), "Early long" (twelve smaller, year-long transfers), and "Traditional response" (four lean season transfers). Outcomes measured food security, consumption, psychological well-being, and financial behaviors.
• Key Findings:
  • Early large transfers (Early short) provided greater net welfare benefits before and during the lean season, improving food security by 8% and consumption by 17.6%, with spillover effects into the lean season despite transfers ceasing.
  • Early transfers also boosted psychological well-being more than traditional responses, with effects persisting longer, due to pre-emptive consumption smoothing and coping capacity enhancement.
  • However, welfare effects converged post-lean season, and there was no significant impact on livelihood outcomes or medium-term resilience.
  • Early transfers reduced household borrowing by 24–38%, indicating better financial stability before the lean season, but credit constraints persisted.
• Policy Implications: Early, sufficiently large cash transfers can mitigate drought effects more effectively than traditional post-shock responses, potentially through improved consumption timing and labor adjustments, but longer-term resilience may require complementary programs.