20251110-通惠期货-纯苯_苯乙烯日报_纯苯宽松苯乙烯去库_化工反弹偏情绪驱动_8页_1mb

Pure Benzene & Ethylene Market Daily Summary

Market Overview

As of November 7, 2025, pure benzene and ethylene markets showed mixed but generally positive price movements, driven by supply constraints and macroeconomic factors.

Pure Benzene

• Price: The main contract increased by 0.44% to 5244 RMB/ton, with a basis of +8 RMB/ton.
• Supply: Supply remains relatively loose due to increased outages (50,000 tons in November, expected 90,000 tons in December), involving large plants like those of China Zhuguang and Sinopec. High imports from regions like Korea keep supply elevated despite domestic production cuts.
• Demand: Demand is neutral, with no significant improvement, though some seasonal factors in arbitrage and minor downtime; high inventory levels persist.
• Inventory: Port stock reached 12.10 tons, up sharply from previous months, indicating accumulation and pressure on prices.
• View: Fundamentally weak due to excess supply and inventory issues, though short-term rallies may occur due to valuation. Continuity of strength is limited.

Ethylene (苯乙烯 / SM)

• Price: The main contract rose 0.27% to 6317 RMB/ton.
• Supply: Supply decreased due to concentrated outages (175,000 tons in November, reducing to 70,000 tons in December), led by companies like Satellite Chemical and Zhenhai Refining, creating de facto stock reduction and easing inventory pressure.
• Demand: Some回暖 in downstream 3S demand with the holiday season, but prior high inventory remains a concern. Trade margins under pressure due to valuation changes.
• Overall: Short-term oscillation expected, potentially bullish due to supply cuts, but fundamentals lack sustained support. Watch for 12-month supply and demand balances.

Commodity and Industrial Chain Insights

• Inventory data shows high port inventories for both pure benzene and ethylene, with pure benzene at 12.10 tons and ethylene at 17.90 tons, significantly above historical averages.
• Price charts indicate persistent volatility, with ethylene showing stronger recent trends compared to pure benzene.
• Downstream demand for products like ABS and PS is mixed, with some recovery but overall slowdown potential.

Key Industry News

• Fed rate cuts expected due to lower US inflation, easing global market stress.
• US-China trade dynamics shifting with potential tariff relief and increased soybean purchases, impacting response to Chinese exports.
• Domestic inventory levels in key sectors remain pressured, with significant stockpiles expected to clear slowly.

Conclusion

Both markets exhibit temporary support from seasonal demand and supply cuts, but fundamentals remain challenged by high inventories and macro uncertainty. Traders should monitor closely for changes in inventory dynamics and broader economic indicators.