20171129-三星证券-Making_hay_while_the_sun_shines_8页_403kb
报告摘要
SK Innovation Summary
Core Content
SK Innovation is a South Korean oil refiner that is expected to rerate in 2018 due to increased earnings, higher dividends, and M&A activity. The company's stock is currently trading at KRW206,000, with a target price of KRW260,000, indicating a potential 26.2% increase. The stock has a market cap of KRW19.0t/USD17.5b and is currently one of the cheapest valuations among global refiners, trading at 7.7x 2018 P/E and 0.92x P/B.
Main Points
- Growth Momentum: SK Innovation's growth momentum is building due to the IPO of a subsidiary and M&A activity.
- Dividend Policy: The company paid its first-ever interim dividends in 2017 and is expected to have a 2018 DPS of KRW8,200, yielding around 4%, in line with the global refiner average.
- Refining Margin: With global oil refining capacity expected to grow by only 0.92m bbl/day in 2018, while demand is forecasted to increase by 1.16m bbl/day, utilization should rise, leading to wider refining margins.
- Valuation: SK Innovation has one of the lowest valuations among global refiners, which could trigger a rerating based on its dividend and growth expectations.
- Stock Performance: Over the past year, SK Innovation has shown a 32.1% performance, slightly outperforming the Kospi index by 4.0%.
Key Information
- Dividend Yield: Expected to rise from 3.9% in 2017E to 4.0% in 2018E.
- EPS Growth: Adjusted EPS is projected to grow from KRW26,195 in 2017E to KRW26,438 in 2018E, a 1.4% decrease, and to KRW26,875 in 2019E, a 1.7% increase.
- P/E and P/B: The forward P/E is expected to decrease from 7.9 in 2017E to 7.5 in 2018E and further to 6.3 in 2019E. The P/B is also expected to decline from 1.0 in 2017E to 0.9 in 2018E and 0.8 in 2019E.
- ROE: The Return on Equity is projected to decrease from 13.6% in 2017E to 12.5% in 2018E and 11.7% in 2019E.
- EV/EBITDA: The Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is expected to decrease from 5.0 in 2017E to 4.5 in 2018E and 3.8 in 2019E.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Market Cap (KRWb) | P/E (2017E) | P/E (2018E) | P/E (2019E) | EPS Growth (2017E) | EPS Growth (2018E) | EPS Growth (2019E) | P/B (2017E) | P/B (2018E) | P/B (2019E) | ROE (2017E) | ROE (2018E) | ROE (2019E) | EV/EBITDA (2017E) | EV/EBITDA (2018E) | EV/EBITDA (2019E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK Innovation | 17,354 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 43.7 | 4.7 | 19.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 13.3 | 12.7 | 13.8 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 3.8 |
| S-Oil | 12,460 | 11.3 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 28.3 | 44.9 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 18.9 | 22.0 | 27.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 4.1 |
| GS | 5,227 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 20.1 | 0.4 | 8.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 12.7 | 11.9 | 11.8 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 5.1 |
| ExxonMobil | 343,629 | 22.6 | 19.5 | 18.2 | 51.8 | 15.7 | 7.4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 8.6 | 8.4 |
| Shell | 260,165 | 16.8 | 15.0 | 13.5 | 101.4 | 11.6 | 11.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 10.1 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 5.4 |
| Chevron | 220,156 | 28.9 | 22.1 | 19.6 | 312.9 | 30.6 | 12.9 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 6.3 |
| BP | 131,436 | 22.1 | 16.6 | 14.2 | 118.3 | 33.2 | 16.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 5.2 |
| Sinopec | 107,858 | 13.9 | 12.5 | 11.1 | 15.1 | 11.1 | 12.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 3.8 |
| Reliance | 95,330 | 17.5 | 14.9 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 17.6 | 14.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 11.8 | 12.6 | 12.9 | 13.2 | 10.2 | 8.9 |
| CNOOC | 61,751 | 12.4 | 10.3 | 9.2 | 7,250.0 | 20.7 | 12.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.6 |
| PTT | 36,015 | 9.8 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 34.2 | (3.6) | 3.1 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 13.5 | 11.2 | 10.7 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.6 |
| Valero | 36,035 | 16.6 | 13.0 | 12.9 | 33.7 | 27.4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 11.0 | 14.3 | 11.4 | 7.1 | 6.0 | n/a |
| FPCC | 34,164 | 14.5 | 17.9 | 18.4 | (6.8) | (18.8) | (2.9) | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 21.1 | 16.9 | 15.0 | 9.1 | 11.4 | 12.1 |
| Indian Oil | 29,669 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 8.2 | (6.6) | 10.1 | 11.5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 18.0 | 18.2 | 18.1 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 6.3 |
| Bharat Petro | 16,961 | 11.8 | 9.9 | 9.2 | (3.1) | 18.2 | 8.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 25.1 | 25.3 | 22.9 | 10.1 | 8.7 | 8.1 |
| Caltex | 6,816 | 14.2 | 14.9 | 14.6 | 21.2 | (4.4) | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 21.8 | 19.5 | 18.6 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 8.5 |
| Thai Oil | 6,009 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 10.2 | 2.7 | (10.1) | (1.5) | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 19.6 | 15.8 | 14.3 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 4.8 |
| Peer Average | - | 14.9 | 13.3 | 12.1 | 498.7 | 12.0 | 10.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 13.6 | 13.7 | 13.9 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 6.3 |
Summary
- SK Innovation is positioned to benefit from the oil refining industry's growth, with a focus on higher dividends and M&A-driven expansion.
- The company's valuation is attractive, and its forward-looking financial metrics indicate a potential rerating in 2018.
- The financial performance has shown steady improvement, with increased EPS and net profit, although some segments show mixed results.
- The stock remains a top pick for the analyst, with a strong outlook for growth and a competitive dividend yield.
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