2025-08-27-莱坊-Spain_Retail_Snapshot_Q2_2025页_583kb

Retail Snapshot Summary - Q2 2025

Core Content

This summary outlines the key trends and developments in the Spanish retail sector during the second quarter of 2025, based on expert analysis from Knight Frank Spain and various market data sources.

Main Trends and Developments

Tourism in Spain

• Seasonality is fading: Tourism in Spain has broken historical records in every month up to May 2025, indicating a shift from traditional seasonal patterns.
• Growth figures: Visitor numbers increased by 5% compared to the same period in 2024 and by nearly 20% compared to 2019 levels.
• Consumer confidence remains strong: Despite rising global uncertainty, consumer confidence in the market increased by 7% in May 2025 compared to April.

Economic Outlook for Spain

• Moderated growth: According to Bankinter, Spain's economic growth in 2025 is expected to moderate to 2.3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from previous forecasts.
• IMF forecast: The International Monetary Fund maintains its growth forecast at 2.5%, which is higher than the eurozone's expected growth of 0.8%.
• Retail turnover: Retail turnover in May 2025 grew by 4.6% year-on-year, with cumulative growth up to that month reaching 3.5%, the highest in the past three years.

Retail Investment

• Investment volume: The retail sector attracted €574 million in investment during Q2 2025, a 7.4% increase compared to the first half of 2024.
• Investment focus: The majority of investment (67%) was directed towards shopping centres, followed by High Street (28%) and Retail Parks (5%).
• Notable transactions:
  • Espacio Mediterraneo SC in Cartagena (Murcia): €135 million transaction, with a capital value of €3,650/sq m.
  • Ballonti SC in Portugalete (Basque Country): €120 million transaction, with a capital value of €2,264/sq m.
  • Uniqlo Flagship in Madrid: €85 million transaction, with a capital value of €21,250/sq m.

Prime Yields

• Shopping centres: Prime yields declined slightly to 7%.
• Retail parks: Prime yields also slightly declined to 6.25%.
• High Street: Prime yields remained stable at 4%.
• European comparison:
  • Paris: Shopping centres at 6.00%, Retail Parks at 6.50%, High Street at 4.25%.
  • Dublin: Shopping centres at 7.00% (down), Retail Parks at 6.50%, High Street at 5.25%.
  • Prague: Shopping centres at 6.00%, Retail Parks at 6.00%, High Street at 4.50% (down).

Key Information

• The retail sector in Spain is showing resilience and continued growth, with a notable shift in investment focus towards shopping centres.
• High Street retail continues to attract significant investment, especially in major urban areas like Madrid and Barcelona.
• Prime yields are slightly declining in shopping centres and retail parks, but remain stable for High Street properties.
• The Espacio Mediterraneo SC, Ballonti SC, and Uniqlo Flagship in Madrid are the top three investment deals of Q2 2025, highlighting the sector's dynamic nature and the interest in premium retail assets.

Contact Information

• Tamara Sánchez, Director, Head of Retail
  Email: tamara.sanchez@es.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +34600919073

• Daniel Caprarin, Head of Research, Marketing & PR
  Email: daniel.caprarin@es.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +34600919087

For further inquiries or property-related advice, contact the above individuals directly.