2024-05-22-莱坊-Spain_Retail_Snapshot_Q1_2024_2页_528kb

Retail Snapshot Summary - Q1 2024

Core Content

The Retail Snapshot report for Q1 2024 provides an overview of the retail sector in Spain, highlighting key trends in tourist activity, GDP growth, consumer confidence, and investment volume. It also includes data on prime yields and notable transactions within the retail real estate market.

Main Trends and Key Information

Tourist Activity

• Spain recorded nearly 10 million international tourists in the first two months of 2024, a 15% increase compared to the same period in 2019.
• This surge in tourism is a positive indicator for the retail sector, as it suggests increased foot traffic and potential consumer spending.

Economic Outlook

• According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Spain is expected to be the fastest-growing advanced economy in the next two years.
• 2024 GDP growth is projected at 1.5%, and 2025 is forecasted to reach 2.1%.

Retail Trade Growth

• The retail trade in Spain experienced year-on-year growth throughout the last year, with the year closing at 4.7%.
• The Consumer Confidence Index in January 2024 stood at 78.6 points, showing an increase of 0.9 points from the previous month and 5.6 points higher than January 2023.
• This improvement is attributed to positive assessments of the current economic situation and enhanced future expectations.

Retail Investment

• Retail investment volume in Q1 2024 reached €840 million, a significant increase compared to €315 million in Q1 2023.
• The shopping center segment dominated the investment landscape, accounting for around 75% of the total, with over €600 million invested in the first three months.
• The prime yield for commercial premises in Madrid remained stable at 4.00%, while shopping centers and retail parks saw a slight increase to 8.00% and 6.75%, respectively.

Notable Transactions

• The top three investment deals in Q1 2024:
  • €200M for 30 Decathlon stores in Spain, purchased by Realty Capital.
  • €171M for CC Salera in Castellón, acquired by Resilient & Lighthouse Capital.
  • €121M for H2O in Madrid, bought by Lighthouse Capital.
• The Decathlon sale was a significant transaction, involving 82 stores across Europe, with over €200 million allocated to Spanish locations.

European Prime Yields

• The report includes prime yields for European cities as of Q3 2023, with a focus on shopping centers, retail parks, and high street properties.
• Berlin: Shopping centers 5.70% ↑, Retail parks 5.40% ↑, High street 3.90% ↑*.
• Dublin: Shopping centers 7.50% =, Retail parks 6.50% ↑, High street 5.50% =*.
• Paris: Shopping centers 6.25% ↑, Retail parks 6.50% ↑, High street 3.75% ↑*.
• The asterisk (*) indicates data from Q2 2023.

Conclusion

The Q1 2024 Retail Snapshot indicates a positive trend in Spain’s retail sector, driven by increased tourist numbers, economic growth, and strong investment activity. The shopping center segment remains a focal point for investors, with prime yields rising and significant transactions taking place. The Consumer Confidence Index also shows a steady improvement, reflecting optimism about the market and future prospects.

This data highlights the resilience and attractiveness of the Spanish retail market, particularly in the context of European real estate trends and economic recovery.