爱立信-消费者实验室：释放5G消费市场潜力（英文）-2020.11-16页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of "Harnessing the 5G Consumer Potential"

Core Content

This document outlines the potential for 5G to significantly enhance consumer revenue opportunities for communications service providers (CSPs) by 2030. It emphasizes the need for innovation, collaboration, and proactive strategies to capitalize on 5G's capabilities in the consumer market.

Main Findings

1. 5G as a Revenue Driver

5G can reverse mobile revenue stagnation if CSPs take a proactive approach.
Proactive strategies can lead to a 34% higher 5G ARPU by 2030 compared to a passive approach.
CSPs could capture USD 3.7 trillion in 5G-enabled consumer revenues by 2030, which is a cumulative figure, with USD 712 billion expected annually.
Core digital services (e.g., enhanced video, cloud gaming, AR/VR, consumer IoT) and adjacent digital services (e.g., digital advertising, in-car connectivity, m-commerce) are key revenue streams.

2. Consumer Market Importance

The consumer market already accounts for 56% of CSP revenues globally in 2019 and is expected to grow in significance with 5G.
Mobile data services and fixed broadband are major contributors to revenue growth.
5G will dominate the mobile broadband market, with 65% of connections expected to be 5G by 2030.

3. Impact of the Pandemic

The pandemic reduced consumer willingness to pay a 5G premium by half, from 20% to 10%.
However, 1 in 3 early adopters are still willing to pay a 20% premium.
In certain markets (e.g., US, South Korea, Australia, Finland), the reduction in premium is less pronounced.
Consumers value resilient connectivity and are likely to continue spending more on mobile broadband over the next 12 months.

4. 5G Adoption Trends

73 CSPs had launched 5G by the end of Q2 2020, with over 80 million subscribers.
By the end of 2020, 190 million 5G subscriptions are expected.
5G adoption is faster than previous generations, likely to surpass 20% of mobile subscriptions in 2 years.

5. Competitive Advantage

First-movers in 5G have shown market share gains, especially in markets with early 5G adoption.
Examples include LG U+ in South Korea and Telstra in Australia, which have leveraged network leadership and innovative services to gain an edge.

Key Opportunities

1. Core Digital Services

Enhanced video (4K, 8K, 360-degree video) is the largest contributor to 5G-enabled digital revenues, expected to reach USD 39.2 billion by 2030.
Cloud gaming and AR/VR are also promising, with USD 6.9 billion and USD 8.6 billion respectively.
Music and consumer IoT are additional revenue areas, with USD 6.7 billion and USD 5.2 billion forecasted.

2. Adjacent Digital Services

Digital advertising is expected to generate USD 23.8 billion in 5G-enabled revenues.
In-car entertainment and connectivity will bring in USD 19.1 billion.
In-venue digital services and m-commerce are emerging opportunities, with USD 3.4 billion and USD 12.7 billion projected.

3. Advanced Digital Services

Advanced digital services (e.g., internet of senses, 3D holography, haptic internet) are still in early stages but have the potential to generate USD 0.12 billion by 2030.

4. 5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA)

5G FWA is expected to reach 130 million subscriptions by 2030, generating USD 53 billion in annual revenue.
North America will account for 40% of FWA revenues, while Asia-Pacific and Europe will each account for 19%.

Pricing and Strategy

Pricing innovation is critical to capturing the 5G connectivity opportunity.
Proactive service providers can bundle core and adjacent digital services to boost ARPU and increase revenue.
5G rich plans that include services like cloud gaming, VR, and AR are more effective in creating 5G differentiation.
Six pricing strategies have emerged, including data tiers only, speed tiers, and 5G rich plans.

Conclusion

To fully leverage the USD 31 trillion in cumulative 5G-enabled consumer revenues by 2030, CSPs must proactively develop and market 5G use cases.
Collaboration with ecosystem players and innovation in tariff structures will be essential to avoid commoditization and secure a competitive advantage.
The consumer market remains the primary revenue source for CSPs, and 5G will be the key enabler for future growth and revenue diversification.