2002年-世界发展银行全球_Lao_PDR_-_Public_Expenditure_Review___Country_Financial_Accountability_Assessment_Volume_2_Detailed_Reports_156页_9mb

Summary of Report No. 24443-LA: Public Expenditure Review and Country Financial Accountability Assessment for Lao PDR

Core Content

This report, prepared by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), International Monetary Fund (IMF), and World Bank, presents a detailed analysis of public expenditure trends and financial accountability in Lao PDR. It is divided into two volumes, with Volume II focusing on detailed reports. The report includes contributions from various stakeholders and is based on data from 1994/95 to 2001/02, providing insights into the country's fiscal framework, budget execution, and sector-specific spending.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Public Expenditure Trends

• Expenditure Patterns: Table 1.1 shows that public expenditures have increased over the years, with a notable rise in capital expenditures. From 1994/95 to 2000/01, the total expenditure increased from 290 billion kip to 3,147 billion kip.
• Current vs. Capital Expenditure: Current expenditures have decreased as a share of the total budget, while capital expenditures have consistently exceeded recurrent expenditures and are quite high by international standards. For example, in 2000/01, capital expenditures accounted for 60.7% of the total, compared to 39.3% for current expenditures.
• Wages and Salaries: The share of wages and salaries in the budget has sharply declined, from almost a quarter in the early years to just 10% in 1998/99. This decline is attributed to inflation and depreciation of the kip, affecting the real value of salaries and public service delivery.
• Sectoral Spending: Table 1.2 highlights the distribution of expenditures across different ministries and provinces. Provincial expenditures have increased relative to central ministries, reflecting the process of decentralization. However, central government spending is constrained by difficulties in securing revenue, which is largely collected by provinces and remitted to the central treasury.

2. Poverty and Poverty Reduction Strategy

• Poverty Situation: The report discusses the poverty situation in Lao PDR, including per capita poverty lines and access to services by the poor and non-poor.
• Poverty Reduction Strategy Framework: Lao PDR's Poverty Reduction Strategy Program (PRSP) and Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Program (IPRSP) are analyzed, highlighting the country's efforts to reduce poverty and improve living standards.

3. Macroeconomic Framework and Resource Envelope

• Macroeconomic Background: The report outlines the macroeconomic and fiscal background, including the country's economic growth and development goals.
• Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF): The MTEF and resource envelope are discussed, emphasizing the importance of fiscal sustainability and the role of donor-funded programs in capital expenditure.
• Fiscal Sustainability: Lao PDR faces challenges in maintaining fiscal sustainability due to high capital expenditures and the impact of inflation on real spending power.

4. Improving Budget Execution, Control, and Transparency

• Budget Classifications: The report reviews the budget classifications and submission processes, noting the need for improved transparency and accountability.
• Budget Execution: There are issues with the execution of the budget, including delays and discrepancies in reporting.
• Control Mechanisms: The control of budget execution is highlighted as an area requiring improvement, with the need for stronger oversight mechanisms.
• Fiscal Decentralization: The report discusses the fiscal decentralization process and its implications for budget execution at the provincial level.

5. Budget Planning and Preparation

• Budget Processes and Institutions: The budget planning process and the role of institutions are analyzed, with a focus on the need for better coordination and data collection.
• Assessment of Budget Preparation: The assessment of the budget preparation process reveals limitations in the accuracy and comprehensiveness of the data, particularly regarding provincial spending by sector and function.

6. Sectoral Analysis

• Education: The report provides detailed analysis of education spending, including repetition and dropout rates, and highlights the need for increased investment in education.
• Health: Health expenditures and their share of the total budget are discussed, with a focus on the impact of poverty on access to health services.
• Energy Sector: The energy sector is analyzed, with a focus on electricity generation and tariffs.
• Forestry: Forestry is a significant sector, with analysis on log production, wood processing industry capacity, and the impact of forestry policies on the economy.

Conclusion

The report concludes that while Lao PDR has made progress in increasing public expenditures, particularly in capital spending, there are significant challenges in ensuring fiscal sustainability and improving the efficiency and transparency of budget execution. The report emphasizes the need for better data collection, improved coordination between central and provincial governments, and enhanced fiscal management practices.

Annexes

The report includes several annexes with detailed tables and charts, providing additional insights into the economic and fiscal situation of Lao PDR. These annexes include data on economic indicators, GDP by industrial origin, and detailed sectoral expenditures, among others. The data presented in these annexes are essential for understanding the broader economic context and the specific challenges faced by different sectors.

Key Tables and Charts

• Table 1.1: National Budget Expenditure, 1994/95-2001/02
• Table 1.2: General Government Expenditure by Ministry and Province, 1996/97-2001/02
• Table 1.3: Expenditure by Sector, Central Ministry and Provinces, 2000/01 actual and 2001/02 budget
• Chart 3.1: Fiscal Developments in Lao PDR, 1995/96-2000/01
• Chart 6.1: Net and Gross Primary Enrolment Ratios, By Province, 1998/99
• Chart 6.2: Evolution of the Growth and Decline of Health Centers
• Chart 6.3: Health Expenditures and Total Expenditures (% of GDP)
• Chart 6.4: Capital and Recurrent Expenditure on Health (% of GDP)

References

• Sources: Data from Lao Authorities and staff estimates, with specific mention of the IMF and the Ministry of Finance.
• Contributors: The report was contributed by various experts and consultants, including Ron Hood (World Bank), David Husband (ADB), and Stephen Cook (IMF). It was also supported by the National Audit Office and other government agencies.