20220302-招银国际-China_Economics__PMI_slightly_rose_with_confidence_improvement_4页_666kb

报告摘要

China Economics Summary

Core Content

The document provides an analysis of China's economic performance in early 2022, focusing on the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), business expectations, and various sectoral indicators. It also includes policy outlook and investment ratings.

Key Economic Indicators

PMI Overview

Manufacturing PMI slightly rose in February 2022, aligning with expectations.
Construction PMI significantly improved, driven by policy easing that boosted infrastructure projects.
Service PMI mildly climbed but remained restrained by the ongoing impact of the Covid-19 virus.
The composite output index decreased from 51.7% in Q4 2021 to 51% in Q1 2022, suggesting a possible slowdown in GDP growth.

Sectoral Analysis

New Orders:
- Manufacturing and construction saw an increase, with new order indices rising from 49.3% and 53.3% in January to 50.7% and 55.1% in February.
- The service sector experienced a decline, with the new order index falling from 48.2% to 46.3% in February.
Exports and Imports:
- Both export order index and import index rebounded, indicating stable growth in trade activities.

Business Expectations

Business expectation index improved across manufacturing, construction, and service sectors, rebounding from 57.5%, 64.4%, and 56.7% in January to 58.7%, 66%, and 59.6% in February.
This improvement is attributed to supportive policies, including tax cuts and credit easing, which boosted business confidence.

Material Costs and Prices

Material cost index rose sharply in all three sectors: manufacturing (from 56.4% to 60%), construction (from 53.6% to 58.4%), and service (from 51.8% to 53.1%).
Ex-factory price index in manufacturing increased from 50.9% to 54.1%, indicating a probable pick-up in the month-over-month (MoM) growth of the Producer Price Index (PPI).
The service price index declined, reflecting weak demand in the sector.

Policy Outlook

Chinese policymakers are expected to continue liquidity and credit easing to stabilize growth and boost confidence, especially in light of external shocks such as the Russia-Ukraine tensions.
There is an expectation that the Chinese economy may bottom out from 2Q22, with continued policy support.

Investment Ratings

BUY: Stocks with potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months.
HOLD: Stocks with potential return of +15% to -10% over the next 12 months.
SELL: Stocks with potential loss of over 10% over the next 12 months.
NOT RATED: Stocks not rated by CMBIGM.

Industry Outlook

OUTPERFORM: Industries expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months.
MARKET-PERFORM: Industries expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months.
UNDERPERFORM: Industries expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months.

Disclaimer and Risk Information

The report contains general information and is not tailored to individual investors.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The value of investments is uncertain and may fluctuate due to market conditions.
No liability is accepted for any loss or damage resulting from reliance on the report.
The report is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities and is intended for specific recipients only.

Analyst Certification

The research analyst certifies that the views expressed in the report reflect their personal opinions and that there is no direct or indirect compensation tied to the views in the report.
The analyst confirms no trading in the stocks covered within 30 days before the report's issue and no intention to trade within 3 business days after the report's issue.

Legal and Distribution Information

The report is distributed solely to clients of CMBIGM or its affiliates.
Legal responsibility is limited to the extent required by law for Singapore recipients.
U.S. recipients are limited to "major US institutional investors" and must use a U.S.-registered broker-dealer for any transactions.
UK recipients are restricted to those who fall within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 or Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Order.