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报告摘要

E-mobility Index 2018 Summary

Core Content

The E-mobility Index 2018 provides an overview of the current state and future outlook of the electric mobility market across the world's leading automotive nations. It highlights the competitive dynamics, technological progress, and strategic considerations for OEMs and battery cell manufacturers.

Key Findings

China remains the leader in the E-mobility Index, driven by strong growth in vehicle and battery cell production and supportive regulatory frameworks.
The United States shares the lead with China in industry terms, while France leads in technology.
Japan and Korea are moving up in the rankings, with Korea overtaking Japan in battery production and technology.
Italy lags behind due to limited production and a lack of electric vehicle models from its domestic OEMs.

Main Points

1. China's Dominance

China continues to lead in both industry and market growth.
Government policies, such as white-listing foreign cell manufacturers, setting production targets, and reducing joint venture requirements, have supported the growth of local battery cell manufacturers.
CATL is the standout Chinese cell manufacturer, securing contracts with major OEMs and planning international expansion.
Regulatory changes (e.g., battery capacity targets and cost limits) are pushing out lower-tech manufacturers and promoting innovation.

2. Technology Leadership

France is the clear technology leader, with a strong focus on small, low-cost BEVs and PHEVs.
Germany is shifting its focus toward long-range PHEVs and BEVs, which slightly reduces its technological edge.
Korea is gaining ground in cost-effectiveness and technology due to its expanded model portfolio and increased xEV production.
Japan is also improving, but faces challenges due to lower battery capacities and basic charging technology.

3. Market Growth

China leads in xEV sales, with a 70% year-on-year increase in 2017.
Germany and France also show significant growth, with Germany at 1.5% and France at a slightly higher market share.
Japan and Korea are experiencing triple-digit growth, but xEVs still account for less than 1% of their markets.
Italy remains stagnant with xEVs at only 0.25% of new vehicle registrations.

4. Battery Technology and Cost Trends

Battery weight is a critical factor, with high-voltage battery systems accounting for up to 86% of their weight.
Battery cell cost is expected to decrease by 20–25% due to the introduction of next-gen chemistries with higher energy density and lower Co content.
Cobalt and Lithium are the most price-sensitive materials, with Cobalt facing speculation and physical undersupply risks.

5. Strategic Options for OEMs

OEMs are becoming increasingly dependent on battery cell manufacturers and have two strategic options:
- Develop long-term partnerships with supply chain players and invest in in-house production.
- Diversify the supplier landscape by sourcing from multiple cell manufacturers.
OEMs should also consider recycling loops to manage used battery packs and partner with cell manufacturers to ensure sustainability and efficiency in the supply chain.

Critical Insights

Battery weight and material costs are major challenges for xEV manufacturers, especially as battery capacity increases.
Vertical integration is seen as a key strategy for battery cell manufacturers to reduce exposure to volatile raw material prices.
Northvolt, a European battery manufacturer, is growing rapidly and plans to reach 8 GWh by 2020 and 32 GWh by 2023.
Government R&D funding is declining globally, but France continues to lead in this area, which supports its technology leadership.

Key Trends

Global xEV sales are expected to grow significantly, driven by regulatory pressure in China and the EU.
Battery cell demand is projected to rise from 74 GWh (2017) to ~1,050 GWh (2030).
Cathode active materials (CAMs) are moving toward Ni-rich compositions (e.g., NCM712, NCA), with a potential addition of Mn or Al for improved stability and performance.
Material cost share is expected to increase, reducing the value added by cell manufacturers and increasing the importance of cost control and SG&A optimization.

Strategic Implications

Cell manufacturers are likely to consolidate their market positions, with CATL and foreign giants (Panasonic, LGC, SDI, SKI) maintaining dominance.
OEMs must diversify their supply chains and consider in-house production or multi-sourcing to reduce dependency.
Sustainability and recycling will become more important as the market matures, requiring collaboration between OEMs and cell manufacturers.

Conclusion

The E-mobility Index 2018 underscores China's leadership in the electric mobility sector, driven by policy support, market growth, and industrial development. While France leads in technology, the global battery market is evolving rapidly, with cost control, material security, and vertical integration becoming central to competitive advantage. OEMs are advised to strategically manage their supply chain relationships and invest in sustainable practices to navigate the changing landscape.