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Fiscal Incidence Analysis of Georgia (2025)

• Country: Georgia
• Report Title: Navigating Fiscal Realities for Equitable Growth
• Published By: World Bank
• Key Objective: Assess fiscal policy’s impact on poverty and inequality

Executive Summary

Key Findings:

1. Poverty Reduction

   • Fiscal policies reduced the poverty headcount from 32.2% (market income) to 15.2% (consumable income), one of the highest reductions in the Europe & Central Asia region.

2. Inequality Reduction

   • Fiscal system reduced Gini coefficient from 44.7 (market income) to 24.6 (final income), ranking 9th globally in inequality reduction.

3. Progressivity

   • Direct transfers (pensions, social assistance) and education spending are progressive, while VAT and indirect subsidies are regressive.

4. Cost-Effectiveness

   • Targeted Social Assistance (TSA) is the most cost-effective tool for poverty reduction (7 Gini points per % of GDP).

Fiscal Policy Context

1. Economic Performance

   • Georgia has grown steadily (+4.8% avg. GDP growth 2014-2023), transitioning to upper-middle-income status and aspiring to high-income status.

2. Fiscal Framework

   • Revenue-to-GDP ratio is 24% (among Europe & Central Asia average), with VAT as the largest tax (~10.3% GDP).

Impacts of Fiscal Policy

Poverty & Inequality:

• Top Contributors to Poverty Reduction: Old-age pensions (~18.6 pp reduction), health spending (~4.3 Gini points).
• Key Inequality Reducers: Pensions (~7.8 Gini points), education spending (~3.2 Gini points).
• Poverty Impact by Area/Rural-Urban: Rural poverty gap smaller than urban despite higher regional Gini.

Gender Equity:

• Urban vs. Rural: Urban areas show greater gender gap reversal. Rural areas lag due to barriers for women in formal employment.
• Unemployment: Women face high unemployment (81.6% of surveyed youth, ages 15-24).

Fiscal Recommendations

1. Tax Reforms

   • Simplify PIT exemption criteria to target informal workers.
   • Increase health taxes on tobacco and alcohol to boost revenue.

2. Spending Priorities

   • Shift from indirect subsidies to targeted transfers (social assistance).
   • Improve rural education/outreach to expand social equity.

3. Pension Reforms

   • Align retirement age to manage aging dependency ratio.

4. Gender Equity

   • Lessen time poverty for women through childcare services and flexible work.

Conclusions & Key Recommendations

Overall: Ensuring fiscal sustainability and equity requires progressivity in taxation, targeted social spending, and pension reforms.

Priority Actions:

• Strengthen domestic revenue mobilization (PIT/VAT reforms).
• Expand fiscal space for social spending via efficiency gains.
• Enhance rural development programs to address disparities.

[citation: World Bank (2025). Navigating Fiscal Realities for Equitable Growth in Georgia]