2022-07-19-IMF-不平等与国家外债结构（英）_32页_867kb

IMF Working Paper Summary: Inequality and the Structure of Countries' External Liabilities

Authors: Philipp Harms, Mathias Hoffmann, Miriam Kohl, Tobias Krahnke
Publication: WP/22/138, © 2022 International Monetary Fund

1. Background and Motivation

• Inequality-External Liabilities Relationship:
  Empirical evidence shows a positive correlation between higher income inequality (e.g., Gini coefficient, top 10% income share) and a greater equity share (Foreign Direct Investment, Portfolio Equity) in countries' external liabilities.
  This relationship persists even after controlling for institutional quality, natural resources, and economic development.
• Policy Importance: Understanding the drivers of external capital structure is crucial for crisis prevention and economic growth, as equity-like instruments (FDI) are linked to technology diffusion and reduced crisis risk.

2. Empirical Findings

Variables and Data:

• Key Variables:
  • Equity Share: Ratio of FDI and portfolio equity in total external liabilities.
  • Income Inequality: Gini coefficient, share of income held by top/bottom percentiles.
  • Control Variables: Institutional quality, GDP, trade openness, natural resources, human capital, financial development.
• Data Source: Standardized World Income Inequality Database (SWIID), World Bank ($).
• Sample: 119 countries (25 advanced, 94 emerging/developing), data averaged 1996-2015.

Regression Results:

• Positive Effects:
  High inequality (higher Gini, top 10% income share) significantly increases the equity share in external liabilities.
• Negative Effects:
  Bottom 20% income share had a negative (but statistically weaker) correlation.
• Other Determinants:
  Higher institutional quality and natural resources positively correlate with equity share, while GDP per capita negatively correlates.

3. Theoretical Model

Key Assumptions:

• Small Open Economy: Produces traded and non-traded goods.
• Entry Barriers: Higher barriers (e.g., vcrit in the model) restrict domestic entrepreneurship.
• Income Inequality Mechanism:
  • Barriers reduce entrepreneurial activity, magnifying inequality.
  • Lower domestic firms create room for foreign multinational corporations (MNCs) to enter the market.
• Equity Share Drivers:
  • Higher barriers reduce external borrowing but attract more FDI (equity capital).

Equilibrium Outcomes:

• Entry barriers increase inequality (boost top income share, depress bottom share).
• They also increase the equity share by reducing borrowing and increasing FDI inflows.

4. Empirical Validation

World Bank "Starting a Business" Index:

• Higher "Starting a Business" scores (indicating easier entry) reduced the equity share in external liabilities.
• Supporting evidence: Inequality trends aligned with barriers (higher barriers → higher inequality and higher equity share).
• Adjusting regressions with the index weakened the influence of inequality measures, confirming the model’s framework.

5. Conclusion

• Key Insight: Entry barriers and entrepreneurship restrictions drive both income inequality and a higher equity share in external liabilities.
• Policy Implications:
  • Relaxing barriers may reduce inequality but could increase reliance on debt (riskier).
  • Policymakers face a trade-off between short-term growth and equity stability.
• Normative Considerations:
  Equity capital (FDI) reduces crisis risk and enhances growth, but equity shares are inversely linked to business-friendliness.

6. References

• Albuquerque, 2003; Razin et al., 1998; Faria & Mauro, 2004; IMF (WP/22/138)
• Data sources: SWIID, World Bank, Penn World Table.