世界银行-抓住一生的机遇：《东帝汶人力资本评论》（英）-2023.11-105页_1mb

Seizing Opportunities of a Lifetime: The Timor-Leste Human Capital Review
Summary

Context and Challenges
Timor-Leste faces a severe human capital crisis, as its Human Capital Index (HCI) score of 0.45 is below regional and global averages. Health and education outcomes remain poor, with high rates of stunting (47%), infant mortality, and low learning achievements. The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated inequalities and learning losses, while the country’s reliance on the Petroleum Fund for economic growth creates long-term fiscal risks.

Key Findings

1. Inefficient Public Spending: Despite high public expenditure (14.5% of GDP), human capital outcomes are underperforming. Inefficiencies include poor targeting, high administrative costs, and coverage gaps in social protection programs.
2. Health System Weaknesses: Uneven service distribution, workforce shortages, and limited infrastructure hinder health service delivery. High stunting and NCD burdens require urgent investment.
3. Education Deficits: Poor teaching quality, overcrowded classrooms, and low learning outcomes stall human capital accumulation. Skills mismatches and youth unemployment further constrain economic growth.
4. Governance and Data Issues: Fragmented institutional capacity, weak accountability, and poor data systems impede evidence-based policymaking.

Priorities and Recommendations

• Short-Term: Revamp cash transfer programs (e.g., BdM and BdM Jerasaun Foun) with stronger conditionality to stimulate demand for essential services.
• Medium-Term:
  • Invest in health infrastructure, clinical training, and nutrition-specific interventions to address stunting and maternal mortality.
  • Launch learning acceleration programs, early warning systems for school dropout prevention, and workforce development strategies to bridge skills gaps.
• Cross-Cutting: Strengthen data systems, monitoring, and accountability mechanisms to enable informed decision-making.

Conclusion
Timor-Leste must urgently prioritize efficient human capital investments to harness its demographic dividend, mitigate climate change impacts, and ensure equitable access to quality services. A Human Capital Taskforce must be established to coordinate efforts and track progress toward sustainable development goals.