2015年-世界发展银行全球_Gabon_Economic_Update_December_2015___Protecting_the_Poor_Despite_Slower_Growth_42页_801kb

GABON ECONOMIC UPDATE SUMMARY

Core Content

This document provides an overview of Gabon's economic developments and poverty outlook for 2015 and beyond, emphasizing the need to protect the poor despite slower economic growth. It outlines the challenges and opportunities in the macroeconomic and fiscal management sectors, as well as the importance of building a robust social protection system.

Main Economic Developments (2015)

Growth

• Growth Deceleration: GDP growth slowed from 5.6% in 2013 to 4.3% in 2014, and is projected to further decrease to 4.1% in 2015.
• Sector Contributions: Growth in 2015 is mainly driven by the services sector, which includes government consumption and investment.
• Oil Sector Decline: The oil sector's contribution to GDP dropped from 46.5% in 2010 to 28% in 2014, reflecting a decline in both prices and production.
• Non-Oil Sectors: Manganese and timber production remained key contributors to growth, alongside services and transport.

Labor Market

• Formal Employment: Despite slower growth, the formal labor market remained stable. Formal private employment increased by 4.4% in 2014, supported by job creation in the mining and wood industries.
• Public Sector Employment: Public sector employment increased by 0.6% in 2014, with the civil service being the largest formal employer.
• Informal Employment: Approximately 47% of the working population is in the informal sector, rising to 57% when including household and associative employment. The informal sector is dominated by the service industry.

Monetary Policy and Inflation

• Inflationary Pressures: Inflation, which reached 4.8% in 2014 (1.5 percentage points above CEMAC convergence criteria), slowed during the first half of 2015 due to falling prices in health services, housing, and communications.
• Consumer Price Index (CPI): The harmonized price index for household consumption (HIPC) stagnated in June 2015 compared to a 6.5% increase in the same period in 2014.
• Monetary Policy: Gabon's monetary policy is guided by the Bank of Central African States (BEAC), which maintains the CFA Franc peg to the Euro to ensure macroeconomic stability.

Fiscal Developments

• Budget Adjustments: In response to declining oil prices, the Government revised the 2015 budget, reducing oil revenue assumptions from US$80 to US$40 per barrel.
• Fiscal Deficit: The fiscal deficit for 2015 is projected to be 3.3% of GDP, the first deficit since 1998. In 2014, it was a surplus of 2.5% of GDP.
• Eurobond Issuance: The Government successfully issued a US$500 million Eurobond in June 2015 to finance the budget gap.
• Stabilization Fund: A stabilization fund was established to manage fluctuations in oil and mining revenues, aiming to accumulate US$500 million over four years through a fixed share of revenues, excess revenue, and proceeds from tax disputes.

External Sector

• Current Account Deficit: The current account deficit in 2015 is estimated at 3.2% of GDP, down from a surplus of 12.1% in 2014, due to declining oil prices.

Macro Poverty Outlook

• Positive Poverty Reduction: Despite slower growth, poverty is expected to decline by an average of 0.8 percentage points per year over the next two years.
• Moderate Poverty Rate: The poverty rate (people living on less than $3.1 in PPP) is projected to fall from 22.0% in 2015 to 20.2% in 2017.
• Inflation Control: Inflation is expected to remain at an average of 2.6% in 2016-2017, supported by the stabilization fund and improved fiscal management.

Social Protection Systems

• Need for Modernization: A significant proportion of Gabonese households face low incomes, unemployment, and vulnerability to economic shocks, necessitating a modern social protection system.
• Challenges: The main challenges include lack of data, poor coordination, fiscal sustainability, effective targeting of beneficiaries, and integrating lessons into policy.
• Recommendations:
  • Deepen the analysis of poverty and vulnerability.
  • Conduct an institutional audit.
  • Formulate a deployment plan.
  • Simulate roll-out options.

Key Information

• Oil Prices Impact: The global oil price drop significantly affected Gabon's economy, leading to reduced revenues and a fiscal deficit.
• Public Investment Cuts: The reduction in public investment, especially in construction and public works, contributed to the slowdown in growth.
• Sectoral Performance: While oil and construction declined, services, transport, and mining showed resilience, contributing to GDP growth.
• Social Protection Gaps: Informal employment is widespread, and the formal private sector, while growing, is still smaller than the public sector in terms of employment.
• Future Prospects: The non-oil economy is expected to drive growth in the coming years, with the potential for improved poverty reduction and inflation control.

Tables and Figures

• Table 1: Formal Private Employment Growth (2012-2014) shows a 4.4% increase in formal employment, with notable growth in the mining and wood industries.
• Table 2: Fiscal indicators (2011-2014) highlight a significant drop in oil revenue and total expenditure.
• Figure 1: Global oil prices (Brent Crude) show a decline from above US$100 to lower levels.
• Figure 2: National income by sector in 2014 shows a strong dominance of services (57.8%).
• Figure 3: Sector contributions to real GDP growth in 2014 indicates the services sector contributed 3.5 percentage points.
• Figure 4: Composition of the industry sector in 2014 shows the dominance of oil production.
• Figure 5: Oil production in Gabon has declined since 2010, with a further drop in 2014 due to a strike.
• Figure 6: Manganese production in 2014 shows a 3% decline, while wood processing and agro-industrial production increased.
• Figure 7 and 8: Distribution of employment by sector and institution shows the informal sector's dominance and the public sector's role in formal employment.

Conclusion

Gabon's economy has experienced a slowdown in growth due to falling oil prices and reduced public investment. However, the services sector continues to drive growth, and the government has taken steps to address the resulting fiscal challenges. The country faces significant hurdles in poverty reduction and social protection, requiring strategic reforms and improved coordination to ensure sustainable development and support for vulnerable populations.