2018年-世界发展银行全球_Western_Balkans_Regular_Economic_Report_No_13_Spring_2018___Vulnerabilities_Slow_Growth_78页_3mb

报告摘要

Western Balkans Regular Economic Report No.13 – Spring 2018 Summary

Core Content

The Western Balkans Regular Economic Report No.13 provides an overview of the region's economic developments, prospects, and policies from 2016 to 2018. It highlights the slowdown in regional GDP growth, challenges in job creation, fiscal management, inflation, credit conditions, and external imbalances, while also outlining the outlook for future growth.

Main Points

1. Regional Economic Growth

GDP Growth: Regional GDP growth slowed from 3.1% in 2016 to 2.4% in 2017, slightly below the 2.6% previously forecasted.
Country Performance:
- Albania, Kosovo, Montenegro: Driven by higher investment and commodity prices, these countries contributed to the regional growth.
- Serbia: Growth slowed due to harsh weather conditions.
- FYR Macedonia: Growth stalled due to a prolonged political crisis.
- Bosnia and Herzegovina: Maintained a growth rate similar to the previous two years.
Growth Trajectory (2016–2019):
- Albania: 3.4% (2016), 3.8% (2017), 3.6% (2018), 3.5% (2019)
- Bosnia and Herzegovina: 3.1% (2016), 3.0% (2017), 3.2% (2018), 3.4% (2019)
- Kosovo: 4.1% (2016), 4.4% (2017), 4.8% (2018), 4.8% (2019)
- FYR Macedonia: 2.9% (2016), 0.0% (2017), 2.3% (2018), 2.7% (2019)
- Montenegro: 2.9% (2016), 4.3% (2017), 2.8% (2018), 2.5% (2019)
- Serbia: 2.8% (2016), 1.9% (2017), 3.0% (2018), 3.5% (2019)

2. Job Creation

Job Growth: 190,000 new jobs were created in the region in the first nine months of 2017.
Employment Trends:
- All countries saw an increase in employment rates.
- Montenegro and Serbia had the fastest growth in employment.
- Albania reached an employment rate above 50%.
- Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina had lower employment rates, with Kosovo still below 30.4%.
Sector Distribution:
- Services accounted for over 80% of new jobs.
- Wholesale and retail trade dominated job creation in all countries.
- Industry was the main source of employment in Kosovo.
Unemployment:
- Unemployment fell across the region, but remained high.
- Serbia had the lowest unemployment at 13.5%.
- Kosovo had the highest at 30.4%.
- Youth unemployment was particularly high, reaching 53.2% in Kosovo.

3. Fiscal Management

Fiscal Surpluses: Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia recorded fiscal surpluses in 2017.
Deficits: Other countries saw slight increases in fiscal deficits, mainly due to higher recurrent spending.
Spending Priorities:
- Capital investment and social benefits were the main areas of increased spending.
- Public wages and social programs dominated public expenditure.
Debt Management:
- Public debt-to-GDP ratios decreased in Serbia, Albania, and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
- Fiscal consolidation in Serbia reduced external public debt.
- Albania, Montenegro, and Kosovo are focusing on reviving capital investment to enhance growth.

4. Monetary Policy and Inflation

Inflation: Increased across the region, driven mainly by food and energy prices.
Monetary Policy: Remained accommodative, with currency appreciation in some countries.
Euroization: Efforts to reduce it were noted, but inflation targeting continued to be used in some economies.

5. Credit and Financial Sector

Credit Expansion: Credit outstanding rose in most countries, but credit to firms declined.
Nonperforming Loans (NPLs): Declined in the region, indicating improved financial health.
Bank Capitalization: Banks remained adequately capitalized, suggesting stability in the financial sector.

6. External Balances

Current Account Deficits: Widened in some countries due to higher imports for energy, consumption, and investment.
Export Growth: Supported by rising commodity prices and tourism-related exports.
Net Exports: Had a mixed impact, with positive contributions in Albania and Kosovo, but negative in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, FYR Macedonia, and Montenegro.

7. Growth Outlook

Positive Outlook: Growth is expected to recover, with projections of 3.2% in 2018 and 3.5% in 2019.
Challenges:
- Trade protectionism and rising global interest rates pose risks.
- Low potential growth and uncertainty in domestic policy could hinder progress.
Recommendations:
- Rationalize spending to build fiscal space for growth-enhancing reforms.
- Strategic policies to boost competitiveness, physical and human capital, and market institutions are needed.

Key Economic Indicators

Country	Real GDP Growth (2016)	Real GDP Growth (2017)	Real GDP Growth (2018)	Real GDP Growth (2019)
Albania	3.4%	3.8%	3.6%	3.5%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	3.1%	3.0%	3.2%	3.4%
Kosovo	4.1%	4.4%	4.8%	4.8%
FYR Macedonia	2.9%	0.0%	2.3%	2.7%
Montenegro	2.9%	4.3%	2.8%	2.5%
Serbia	2.8%	1.9%	3.0%	3.5%
Western Balkans	3.1%	2.4%	3.2%	3.5%

Key Risks and Opportunities

Risks:
- Trade protectionism.
- Normalization of global interest rates.
- Low potential growth.
- Uncertainty in domestic policy and possible reversals.
Opportunities:
- Fiscal reforms to reduce deficits and increase fiscal space.
- Investment in infrastructure and capital projects.
- Improved competitiveness through strategic policies.
- Higher employment and wages contributing to poverty reduction.

Conclusion

The report underscores the slowdown in growth and job creation in the Western Balkans, despite a favorable external environment. While revenues improved, sustainable growth depends on better fiscal management, targeted public spending, and structural reforms. Inflation and external imbalances remain significant challenges, and monetary policy continues to be accommodative. The outlook is positive, but risks such as trade protectionism and policy uncertainty must be addressed to ensure long-term economic stability and growth.