2025-05-22-Jefferies-天祥集团（ITRK）_初步观点4个月交易情况-增长放缓_外汇逆风增强_7页_110kb

报告摘要

Intertek Group Equity Research Summary

Overview

Rating: Buy
Price Target: 5,800p (+18% from current 4,920p)

Financial Performance

4M 2025 (Apr): Revenue of £1,093.9m, 3% below consensus expectations.
Organic Growth: 4.5% (vs. consensus 5.5%), hampered by FX headwinds (-3.4%) and divisional performance.
Reported Revenue Growth: +1.2%.

Divisional Breakdown

Consumer Products: 7.8% organic growth; FY25 outlook unchanged at mid-single digits.
Corporate Assurance: 8.9% organic growth; FY25 outlook remains high-single digits.
Health & Safety: 3.5% organic growth; FY25 outlook stable at mid-single digits.
Industry & Infrastructure: 2.7% organic growth; FY25 outlook at mid-single digits.
World of Energy: 0.3% organic growth; FY25 outlook revised to low-single digits from mid-single digits.

Key factors included slowing oil trading in North America and tougher comps in Chems/Pharma.

Guidance and Outlook

Group guidance for FY25: Mid-single-digit organic growth, margin progression, and strong free cash flow.
FX is now expected to be a 250bp revenue headwind and 350bp earnings headwind.

Risks and Valuation

Downside Risks: Consumer division slowdown, ESG traction issues, margin expansion challenges.
Valuation: Based on a two-stage DCF (WACC 7.8%) and 23x FY25 EPS.

The equity research provides a bullish view with a "Buy" recommendation, supported by margin progression and strong FCF, contingent on FX and divisional performance.

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