2016-02-03-奥纬咨询-2015-2025_MRO_Middle_East_Market_Forecast_30页_895kb

Summary of "TURBULENCE AHEAD: DISENGAGE THE AUTOPILOT" - 2015-2025 Global Fleet & MRO Market Outlook

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the future of the global air transport fleet and MRO (Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul) market from 2015 to 2025. It highlights the transformative impact of new aviation technologies and the strategic shifts required by MRO providers and airlines to remain competitive in a rapidly evolving industry.

Key Market Trends

• Fleet Growth: The global air transport jet and turboprop fleet is projected to grow by more than 10,000 net new aircraft by 2025.
• Annual Growth Rate: The global fleet will grow at an average rate of 3.7% annually over the forecast period.
  • Passenger Fleet: Expected to grow at 3.8% annually.
  • Cargo Fleet: Forecasted to grow by 2.3% annually.
• Aircraft Vintage Shift: A significant move towards late-generation aircraft is expected, with over 43% of new aircraft in the Middle East and Africa being new technology models.
• MRO Market Growth: The global MRO market is forecasted to exceed $100 billion by 2025, growing at a 4.1% average annual rate.
• Regional Disparities: There is a 5% spread in regional growth rates, leading to a significant shift in MRO demand and market share across the globe.
• Infrastructure Challenges: Asia/Pacific, China, and India will face challenges in building the necessary infrastructure to handle the expected MRO volume.

MRO Market Outlook by Region

Impact of New Technologies on MRO

• Data Analytics: The collection, storage, and analysis of data will be a critical enabler for aircraft health monitoring and predictive maintenance, potentially reducing maintenance costs and increasing efficiency.
• Technological Shifts: New technologies are expected to cut or redistribute 15-20% of MRO spend, while also creating new business models and revenue streams.
• Operational Changes: Health monitoring and predictive maintenance will reduce the time-on-tool requirements for individual checks, leading to fewer repairs.
• Skill Requirements: The increasing use of new technology aircraft will require new technical skills and capabilities in the MRO industry.

Challenges for the MRO Industry

• Innovation Barriers: The MRO industry lacks the internal infrastructure and capabilities to recognize, assess, and prepare for change. This includes:
  • Limited R&D investment
  • Lack of regular disruptions
  • Insufficient resources and attention from executives
  • Unclear ownership and leadership structures
  • Inadequate assessment infrastructure
• Market Share Shifts: The aftermarket will face a reduction or redistribution of $10–15 billion due to technological advances, with new competitors emerging.
• Strategic Response: MRO providers and operators must actively choose and develop technologies to maintain or grow their market share. Those that fail to adapt may become innovation takers, losing control to competitors.

Call to Action

• Disengage the Autopilot: The MRO industry must move beyond traditional business models and embrace innovation.
• Survey Participation: Oliver Wyman invites industry participants to contribute to the 2016 MRO survey, which is closing on February 5th, 2016. To participate, send an email to MROsurvey@oliverwyman.com with the subject line “Count me in”.

Conclusion

The coming decade will bring turbulence and transformation to the aviation and MRO sectors. With the introduction of new technologies and significant shifts in fleet composition, the MRO industry must adapt quickly to maintain relevance and competitiveness. Strategic foresight, innovation, and proactive planning will be essential for success.